In recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant price correction and the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim the psychological threshold of $30,000 that it surpassed earlier this year. Despite a sharp rise fueled by increasing institutional interest at the beginning of this year, the inability of the cryptocurrency to sustain its gains has raised concerns and led investors to closely monitor the volatile market.
According to Timothy Peterson, a prominent investment manager, there is a 50% chance that the flagship cryptocurrency will drop to $25,000 before the end of September, instead of moving upward. However, the analyst also added that such a drop would mark the last major decline before Bitcoin embarks on its long-awaited bull run:
There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September. This will be the last major decline before the next big bull run cycle begins.
Peterson’s remarks about a possible drop in BTC price next month are based on the historical performance of the cryptocurrency. As can be seen from the image shared by the analyst, September could be the least favorable month for Bitcoin in terms of price performance. In the past seven years, the only time Bitcoin saw positive price increases in September was in 2016, when it rose by 6.4%. On the other hand, according to Peterson’s table, BTC experienced declines throughout this month from 2017 to 2022, with losses ranging from -2.95% to -13.8%.
However, October can be considered as one of the best-performing months for the largest cryptocurrency. Since 2010, the only time Bitcoin recorded a negative price change this month was in 2018 when it dropped by 4.5%. Although November and December have indicated mixed price performances for Bitcoin in previous years, the sharpest price drops are said to have occurred in the previous month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $28,989 with very little movement in the past 24 hours.
While Bitcoin lost 1% of its value last week, its monthly loss currently stands at 4%. However, its gains since the beginning of the year continue to be strong, at around 75%. On August 4th, senior cryptocurrency analyst TradingShot emphasized that Bitcoin has completed its third golden cross model, which serves as a long-term bullish price signal.
According to the expert, the previous two instances when Bitcoin completed this model resulted in strong price increases for the first cryptocurrency. Peterson’s prediction seems to align somewhat with his comments that Bitcoin may face short-term pressure but the long-term outlook currently appears promising for the largest cryptocurrency.