The anticipation for altcoin-focused spot ETF approvals continues to grow in the United States. With the SEC further delaying its decision on Cardano’s (ADA) ETF and postponing Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF application to June 17, 2025, the wait feels interminable. Meanwhile, 21Shares has officially submitted its Dogecoin 
$0.097992 (DOGE) ETF application, and WisdomTree has initiated a 21-day public consultation for its XRP fund. Despite these bureaucratic delays, prediction platform Polymarket has raised the likelihood of SEC approval for five major altcoins, especially XRP, above 68%, with XRP showing the highest probability at 83% and Dogecoin at the lowest with 68%.
Polymarket’s Optimistic Outlook for XRP
On Polymarket, users cast votes using coins, pricing the probabilities with contract costs directly reflecting market consensus. Recently, XRP contracts reached $0.83, indicating an 83% approval probability. Similarly, Solana 
$86 (SOL), Cardano 
$0.249913, and Litecoin (LTC) contracts surpassed the $0.70 mark, crossing significant psychological thresholds.
PEPE has lagged behind with a mere 9% probability. Investors believe that following the swift approval of spot Bitcoin 
$77,560 ETFs in January, altcoin approvals will be next. The anticipation surrounding the spot Ethereum 
$2,318 ETF approval wave has driven contract prices up by double digits within a short period.
Data from the platform indicates that the purchase volume for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin contracts has tripled compared to the previous month. 21Shares’ Dogecoin application and WisdomTree’s launch of the public window for XRP funds have stirred the trading boards. Participants focus on SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s ‘asset-based evaluation’ approach, with draft regulations concerning cryptocurrencies being priced in during the new Congressional session.
Investor Expectations Rise Due to SEC Delays This Year
The SEC has shelved the spot Cardano ETF application once again. The critical date for Franklin Templeton’s XRP fund is June 17, 2025, while WisdomTree’s file is under 21-day public review. These dates stand as milestones for a market seeking new products following the spot Ethereum ETF approvals. 21Shares’ Dogecoin application is viewed as the first real test of the SEC’s stance on popular altcoins.
Investors expect a chain reaction of spot ETF approvals in the first quarter of next year, prompting both institutional fund managers and individual investors to position themselves accordingly. Potential changes in regulatory direction, supported by comprehensive market laws that could pass post-election Congress, might drive Polymarket ETF contract prices for altcoins even higher.
In a scenario where the process extends, new guideline documents expected in July could come into play to limit the uncertainty. Thus, it is recommended that investors keep their portfolio distribution flexible and plan their hedging strategies early with futures trading.
Currently, the market is focused on critical dates, especially June 17, which will determine the fate of XRP and other altcoin spot ETFs. While Polymarket data provides an optimistic perspective, caution remains paramount. This could be a decisive year in the altcoin ETF race.
