As global conflicts intensify, the United States has now shifted focus to Iran even before the dust has settled on the Ukrainian front. In a rare press interaction today, Donald Trump allowed reporters to pose their questions directly for the first time in weeks. His remarks made clear that US strikes are unlikely to stop for at least another month — or until there is a complete overhaul of Iran’s regime. He spoke openly about the possibility of eliminating Iran’s military infrastructure entirely. In the midst of this turmoil, many are asking whether the current climate presents an attractive entry point for Ripple (XRP) and other cryptocurrencies.
Appetite for Cryptocurrencies Tested
Nasdaq futures tumbled as much as 2.5% today, with gold dipping to $5,100 and oil continuing its double-digit rally, breaking above $85 for the first time since July 2024. The inflationary impact of surging energy prices is now being taken seriously in financial markets. QatarEnergy, the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), was forced to halt operations due to military attacks, causing EU gas prices to spike by 90%. The mounting risks have led some analysts to predict that interest rate hikes may replace earlier expectations of monetary easing this year.
Ripple (XRP): Buy or Hold?
The initial analysis highlights the fast-changing nature of geopolitical and economic risks. The key takeaway can be summarized as follows:
“If Iran pauses hostilities and sits down at the negotiation table within one, at most two weeks, cryptocurrency and thus XRP purchases at current price levels could be profitable for market participants.
However, if the confrontation drags on, the tide will turn against digital currencies. With substantial room still left for declines, an extended standoff could trigger renewed selloffs, sending cryptocurrencies to fresh yearly lows.
Trump’s persistent calls to permanently rid Iran of its aggressive regime signal that this conflict may not be easily resolved. The landscape is drastically different from 2025, and compared to the 12-day war, Iran now has much less to lose. If the US fails to topple Iran’s government from within, the process will likely be prolonged regardless.”
In recent days, the crypto market has wavered less than feared, with Bitcoin holding above $68,000 as traders apparently priced in these risks well in advance. Even so, the knock-on inflationary effects and broader risks from a drawn-out conflict could erode risk appetite for digital assets over the coming weeks.
Iran has launched over 1,200 drones and fired more than 300 missiles in this latest escalation. By comparison, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) expended over half its 2025 munitions stockpile in a single campaign, underscoring Iran’s aggressive use of its arsenal. Should Iran continue at this pace, depleted munitions may force Tehran to consider negotiating within weeks. But Trump’s aggressive stance suggests US efforts could pivot toward completely dismantling Iran’s military if Iran’s missile stockpiles dwindle.
Despite Iran’s apparent disadvantage in sustaining its stockpiles, the cost equation does not favor the US and its allies. Iran’s Shahed drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000 apiece, while intercepting them with US-made Patriot missiles can run up to $4 million per shot. Although Patriots boast interception rates above 90%, such costs are unsustainable. Qatar’s Patriot supply now covers just four more days of intense use, and the UAE has requested more medium-range air defense support. Qatar is also seeking help specifically to counter drone threats.
Given this turmoil, two possible scenarios emerge for Ripple’s XRP. Currently, the XRP Coin ETF channel remains robust, strongly defending $1.33 as support. If the crisis does not drag on, a recovery above $1.47 followed by a target of $1.648 could materialize, with bullish sentiment possibly pushing towards the $1.837 level.
Conversely, if support falters, XRP could drop to $1.215 and even wick below the major $1 mark, landing near $0.98 or lower before finding new footing.
