The Solana-based memecoin named Official Trump (TRUMP) soared to its highest-ever price in anticipation of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025. However, this peak marked the beginning of a prolonged downward trend for the token. Despite brief attempts to rally in early 2026, TRUMP is struggling to regain investor confidence. Since January 14, the token has plummeted over 42%, currently trading at approximately $3.26. This figure represents a staggering 95% drop compared to its peak of $73.43 last year.
Reasons Behind TRUMP Token’s Sharp Decline
The dramatic decline of TRUMP can be attributed not only to technical factors but also to macroeconomic and political developments. Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin’s approximate 25% drop has significantly dampened risk appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market. Additionally, a Congressional investigation into World Liberty Financial (WLFI), allegedly supported by Trump, has further fueled the selling pressure on the TRUMP token. Speculations suggesting WLFI’s links to foreign state capital have caused investors to approach the memecoin with caution.
Technical indicators also support the bearish trend. On daily charts, the market structure remains clearly bearish, with the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator forming new lows indicative of strong selling volumes. The ongoing placement of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the 20 level suggests the token is in oversold territory. Instead of hinting at a strong recovery potential, this situation highlights weak buying interest.
Is a Short-Term Recovery Possible?
According to analysts, the potential target for a short-term recovery in TRUMP could be the imbalance area between $3.57 and $4.09. However, this zone is expected to act as a strong supply region where the price might be rejected. Testing levels around $4.40 or $4.72 could potentially trigger another wave of declines.
Conversely, a strong Bitcoin rally above the $74,000 mark could theoretically lift TRUMP to as high as $5.19. Yet, given current market conditions with extremely weak buying pressure, this scenario remains unlikely for the time being. A similar trend has been observed recently in Elon Musk-themed memecoins, where significant fluctuations, particularly in DOGE derivatives, have again highlighted the volatile nature of the memecoin market.
