Cardano is experiencing a technical correction that began after ADA reached its 20-month high of $0.68 in mid-December. On the daily chart, ADA’s relative strength index (RSI) exceeded 70, reaching overbought levels, prompting investors to take profits.
Why Is Cardano Falling?
An RSI value over 70 suggests that ADA is overvalued, which could lead to a trend reversal or corrective pullback. ADA is continuing a corrective retracement within a descending parallel channel, confirmed by the downward movement. The RSI is currently around the 40 level, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
According to data from TokenTerminal, the decline in ADA’s price since mid-December coincides with a decrease in transaction volume and the number of core developers.
Specifically, the number of unique GitHub users making multiple commitments daily to the blockchain’s public GitHub repository dropped from 164 developers, a three-month high on December 10, 2023, to 123 on January 18. This represents a 25% decrease. Transaction volume also fell by 87% during the same period, from approximately $2.34 billion to $304 million.
Additional data from CoinMarketCap shows that ADA’s daily transaction volume dropped from approximately $1.165 billion on December 10, 2023, to $381 million on January 18. The decrease in transaction volume and core developers corresponds to a 27% price drop in ADA during the same period, suggesting that these metrics influence ADA’s short-term price trends, including the decline on January 19.
Bitcoin and the Crypto Market
The entire crypto market is correcting from its peak as spot ETF products are approved, and ADA appears to be reflecting the same pattern. Factors that may have increased investor selling include a decrease in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index and sales focused on spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In particular, Bitcoin has recently faced significant selling pressure, with its price dropping to the $40,000 level on January 12. This is likely linked to large outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), possibly reflecting investors’ preference to switch to Bitcoin ETF products with lower fees. As Bitcoin fell, major altcoins like ADA also declined in parallel.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index retreated from the greed zone to a neutral level on January 19. The decrease in market sentiment could be responsible for the current market correction. The neutral value suggests that market participants are cautious and waiting to see the market’s short-term direction.
