Two prominent US-based asset management firms, Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares, have filed applications with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to offer exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the results of major US elections. Their move to develop financial products tied to political outcomes marks a significant departure from traditional investment strategies and signals burgeoning interest in bringing prediction markets into mainstream finance.
New ETFs Aim to Mirror Political Ups and Downs
Bitwise plans to introduce six new ETFs under the “PredictionShares” brand, listing them on the New York Stock Exchange. These funds are designed to track milestone political events, such as the 2028 presidential and the 2026 congressional elections. Investors will be able to take positions based on their expectations for which political party will control crucial institutions like the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
Each ETF is structured to allocate at least 80% of its assets to event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These contracts pay out $1 if a specific political event occurs and $0 if it does not, exposing investors to the dramatic swings and potential risks that come with outcome-based financial products.
US Regulators Navigate Uncharted Territory
With the rise of outcome-driven investment products, the CFTC is actively considering updates to its regulatory framework. This comes as high-volume trading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in popularity, offering prediction contracts on everything from electoral results to economic indicators.
GraniteShares has also submitted its own slate of products modeled on a similar approach, further underscoring the growing appeal of turning event-driven prediction contracts into mainstream financial instruments. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart frames these proposals as evidence of a broader trend toward the financialization of new asset classes.
Election-Linked Funds Reshape Market Access
If approved, the proposed ETFs would allow investors—through traditional brokerages—to gain exposure to markets that forecast election results. The value of these funds would fluctuate in real time in line with shifting market sentiments, available polling data, and the latest political developments.
Bitwise and GraniteShares are not alone; a broader wave of applications for election-themed financial products is underway. For example, in February 2026, Roundhill Investments also filed for an ETF linked to political outcomes. This trend illustrates mounting demand for new financial instruments that let investors bet on pivotal political events.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart views proposals tied to election outcomes as a signal that financial markets are rethinking their approach to novel investment vehicles.
It remains unclear how the SEC will ultimately rule on these applications. Still, the surge in proposals for prediction-market-based funds suggests the sector is on the verge of witnessing the arrival of a new generation of politically linked investments—provided the regulatory landscape adapts to accommodate them.
