Bitcoin trading activity showed a noticeable slowdown during the first half of 2026, according to VanEck, a prominent asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer. Despite subdued on-chain movement, VanEck identified a significant structural shift beneath the surface, emphasizing a tightening supply scenario for the cryptocurrency.
Long-Term Holders Dominate Bitcoin Supply
VanEck reported that 60.8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved on-chain for at least 12 months, marking a historically high level for long-term holder supply. This figure, based on a Glassnode-style on-chain analysis, points to investors increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term macro asset rather than a short-term trading instrument.
The increase in dormant Bitcoin coincides with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs from major financial institutions such as VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity. These funds collectively manage hundreds of thousands of BTC in custodial accounts, removing a substantial portion of the supply from liquid exchange order books.
VanEck observed that, “a large share of the available Bitcoin has effectively been withdrawn from trading platforms, as ETF custody and long-term holders dominate the market structure.”
Mini dictionary: VanEck is a global investment manager known for its exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including spot crypto products aimed at both institutional and retail investors.
| Metric | Value / Description |
|---|---|
| Long-term holder supply | 60.8% of circulating BTC unmoved for 12 months |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF custody | Hundreds of thousands of BTC managed by VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity |
Markets and Institutions React to Low Supply Pressure
The elevated share of dormant Bitcoin translates to relatively weaker selling pressure in the near term. VanEck noted that with so much of the Bitcoin supply locked up by long-term holders and ETFs, market liquidity on exchanges remains shallow, making prices more sensitive to shifts in demand and trading volume.
Institutional investors and fund managers continue to increase exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs and corporate treasuries. However, the current supply structure also introduces the risk of sharper price movements, since sudden bouts of trading activity could cause more volatile swings than in earlier cycles.
“Thinner order books and low liquidation pressure may result in larger price spikes if trading volumes surge unexpectedly,” VanEck explained.
Bitcoin miners and broader market participants, meanwhile, may view this environment as reinforcing Bitcoin’s credibility as a form of collateral, not merely a speculative asset.
Market Catalysts Ahead
As the market heads into the rest of 2026, VanEck pointed to potential catalysts such as US interest rate decisions and third-quarter ETF flows as key variables. While dormancy remains elevated, long-term holders still retain the option to sell, depending on shifts in sentiment or macroeconomic news.
Institutional accumulation is expected to continue, but the pace and impact will depend largely on broader risk appetite and central bank policy. VanEck described dormancy as characteristic of a market environment marked by macro uncertainty, robust institutional buying, and subdued retail activity.
Despite the historical supply tightness, ETF inflows and outflows remain heavily influenced by shorter-term investor sentiment.
