XRP slid to $1.009 on June 26, 2026, marking its lowest level since November 2024 and sparking concern among investors. Despite this sharp decline, net inflows into XRP spot ETFs have remained strong, signaling that institutional interest is intact. This discrepancy reveals a tug-of-war between ongoing buyer demand through funds and a broader market trend that continues to pressure XRP’s price.
ETF inflows persist amid heavy price pressure
Buying through spot ETFs is helping remove some circulating supply from the market, yet faltering demand and a significant drop in speculative trading activity have limited XRP’s price recovery. As a crypto asset linked to the Ripple ecosystem and known for its cross-border payment use case, XRP’s unique positioning has not been enough to spark a meaningful rebound in recent months.
Futures data helps paint a similar picture: open interest has stabilized around 400 million XRP, while the Open Interest Turnover Ratio has hovered at 0.71, underlining subdued market activity and speculation.
Mini glossary: Open interest refers to the total value of outstanding contracts in the futures market that have not yet been closed. A sharp spike in this figure often points to rising leveraged activity and the potential for increased volatility.
Arab Chain, a market analyst, highlights the need to closely watch open interest and turnover ratio for sudden surges, warning that these are often precursors to more dramatic price swings.
Technical outlook maintains the downward trend
Daily charts show XRP has remained in a downward trend that began in July 2025. The breach below the April 2025 trough of $1.61 reinforced this bearish pattern, with prices then trading within a range for several months. However, a sharp sell-off at the end of May disrupted this fragile stability, intensifying bearish sentiment.
Mid-June saw a brief recovery to $1.2935, nudging close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1.2985, where renewed selling quickly took hold. The subsequent drop dragged XRP back toward $1.05, further rattling investors hoping for a turnaround.
| Indicator | Level |
|---|---|
| June 26 low | $1.009 |
| Mid June high | $1.2935 |
| Nearest resistance | $1.13 |
| Possible downside targets | $0.975 and $0.854 |
Should selling momentum persist, the focus turns to $0.975 and $0.854 as next support levels. The possibility of falling below the psychological $1 mark in July has also become a topic of discussion within the trading community.
The $1 level emerges as a short-term focal point
A more optimistic take can be found in the way XRP has historically reacted to the $0.90 to $1 range, with buyers stepping in several times to defend this zone. This area now serves as a crucial support, while resistance at $1.13 has flipped from support and is under close watch. Should XRP push through $1.13, it could signal renewed strength in the near term.
Trader Celal Kucuker argues that XRP must hold its current support area, noting that reaching above $10 within the next 12 months is theoretically possible for the coin, though such a move would likely be accompanied by much higher volatility.
Positive divergence observed on the daily chart over the past week suggests selling pressure may be weakening. Technical analyst ChartNerd points out that previous bear cycles lasted 14 to 37 months with declines of 85% to 96%, whereas the current downturn has run 11 months with a 72% pullback so far—hinting at the potential for a bottoming process to begin soon.
In the short run, the market’s gaze is locked on the $1 threshold. Holding above this mark will be key for another test of the $1.13 resistance. On the flip side, a clear break below support could open the door to a new target zone between $0.87 and $0.90.
