XRP may be on the verge of a significant upside move following a challenging start to the year. The token lost 27.1% in the first quarter and an additional 22.4% in the second quarter. Now, a rare alignment of technical patterns alongside strong seasonality data is drawing attention to a potential breakout.
Technical indicators suggest a turning point
The daily chart on TradingView shows XRP confined within a descending broadening wedge, recognized as a classic late-stage accumulation pattern in technical analysis. This setup often signals an emerging end to prolonged selling and the possibility of a reversal.
Supporting this outlook, the relative strength index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting selling pressure is losing momentum. Simultaneously, buyers are managing to defend a local bottom near $1.05, further strengthening the bullish case.
Mini dictionary: Descending broadening wedge, a technical chart pattern where two converging downward-sloping trendlines diverge, often pointing to a possible bullish reversal after prolonged declines.
Seasonality and historical performance
Data from CryptoRank, a cryptocurrency analytics platform, shows that the third quarter is traditionally XRP’s most stable growth period. Over the past seven years, XRP has not posted a negative return in Q3.
So far in July, the token’s return stands at 4.19%. Historically, the middle of summer has been a reliable period for recovery after sharp losses in June. XRP slumped 22.1% in June 2026. Following similar dips in previous years, the cryptocurrency rebounded by 47.6% in July 2023 and 35% in July 2025, illustrating strong seasonal recovery pulses.
| Period | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| June Return | -18.5% | -22.9% | -22.1% |
| July Return | +47.6% | +35% | +4.19% |
The median Q3 return for XRP sits at 25.8%. After six months of continuous price compression, analysts believe this creates notable upside potential for the coming months.
Key resistance zones and potential targets
XRP currently trades near $1.08. To confirm a breakout from the wedge and start a fresh rally, buyers would need to push the price above the $1.12 to $1.18 resistance range. Clearing this level could pave the way for medium-term gains, with targets set between $1.45 and $1.60. These projections represent an approximate 50% rise from current prices.
Broader market stagnation and temporary slowdowns in spot XRP ETF inflows may limit a swift upward move. However, market observers note that the ongoing consolidation within the wedge is establishing a robust foundation ahead of the fourth quarter. Historically, XRP’s average return in Q4 has reached as high as 133.3%.
XRP has never closed Q3 in negative territory in the past seven years, and technical signals are now lining up with this seasonal trend to indicate a potential recovery.
