Ripple’s XRP is poised at a pivotal support level, as recent technical analysis highlights the importance of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for its near-term momentum. French chart analyst Egrag, known for his expertise in cryptocurrency market trends, pointed to this technical indicator as a key determinant for the OG altcoin’s next move.
Critical support: 100-EMA reaction zone
On the three-day chart, XRP has repeatedly found support at the light-blue 100-EMA line. Egrag observed that earlier price cycles saw XRP rebounding from this level, eventually rallying toward its all-time high of $3.65 before hitting resistance and consolidating. He emphasized that simply touching the 100-EMA is not sufficient for a sustained recovery.
The analyst suggested that XRP needs to establish consecutive closes above the 100-EMA on the three-day timeframe to signal renewed bullish momentum. According to Egrag, there may be another short-term dip before such a breakout occurs.
XRP needs to see multiple solid closes above the 100-EMA before any significant upside, with caution over a possible further dip in the near term.
Should XRP fail to stay above the $1.38 to $1.40 reaction zone, the price could briefly retreat into the liquidity pockets between $0.95 and $1.00 before any vertical rally materializes.
| Support/Resistance Level | Action Point |
|---|---|
| 100-EMA (Three-Day) | Key Support |
| $1.38–$1.40 | Current Reaction Zone |
| $0.95–$1.00 | Potential Dip Zone |
| $2.27 | Major Resistance |
| $3.65 | Previous All-Time High |
| $3.84 | Macro Breakout Zone |
Market activity and CLARITY Act anticipation
Egrag stated that if XRP’s price experiences a macro dip below $1, those who previously missed the $0.95–$1.00 range may get another chance to enter the market at these levels. For traders waiting for further confirmation, reclaiming the resistance at $2.27 will be a crucial milestone signaling potential renewed upside.
Historical analysis identifies $3.84 as a significant macro breakout target for XRP, which could come into play if the price reclaims prior highs and sustains upward momentum.
Meanwhile, network metrics suggest market compression following a spike in August. Crypto Quant, a blockchain intelligence provider, reported that the XRP Volume Z-Score for 30-day trading soared to 4 during August, before dropping back to near zero. This indicates current trading volumes align closely with historical averages, showing neither overly bullish nor bearish activity.
If XRP manages to break out above the 100-EMA and holds above $1.40, trading activity could accelerate, according to historical trends observed in August. Much of the current market movement may hinge on the upcoming CLARITY Act update, scheduled for September 15, 2026.
Mini dictionary: CLARITY Act, a pending legislative or regulatory update potentially impacting how digital assets like XRP are classified and governed in the US financial sector.
At present, the market is consolidating as most participants remain cautious, closely watching both the technical outlook and the upcoming regulatory developments such as the CLARITY Act.
