Bitcoin traded near $77,100 on Friday, encountering significant resistance after rallying above $82,000 in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency’s momentum slowed as it approached a dense cluster of technical and on-chain barriers, identified by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Long-term holders and technical resistance zones
According to CryptoQuant, investors who have held Bitcoin for extended periods released up to 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period in 2026. These sales primarily took place in the $77,100 to $80,200 price range, creating an area of concentrated supply where sellers are likely to defend their positions during price advances.
The price remains below the 365-day moving average at $81,700, a technical level that previously rejected rallies in early September. CryptoQuant considers a daily close above this moving average as confirmation of a new bullish phase, rather than just a temporary breakout.
The $77,100 to $80,200 resistance zone is particularly notable because it represents coins released from long-term holders who accumulated during previous market cycles. Each attempt to move above this range is met with selling, and failed efforts can prompt further profit-taking from these investors.
CryptoQuant notes that a decisive break above $81,700 would target the next resistance at $83,600, which is defined by their network valuation model, with a further barrier at the $88,700 trader realized price band. Without a clear move above these points, Bitcoin could remain constrained by existing supply.
Should Bitcoin reverse, the analytics firm identifies the 200-day moving average near $70,000 as the first major support level. A larger accumulation zone exists between $62,000 and $65,000, containing around 476,000 BTC added this year.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics and data provider that specializes in on-chain market indicators and technical analysis for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
ETF flows highlight shifting demand
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a notable shift this week, marking four consecutive days of net outflows. On Friday, funds saw net redemptions totaling $13.29 million, pushing the week’s total outflow to $462.73 million, despite $2.60 billion in trading volume.
The persistent ETF withdrawals coincided with Bitcoin trading just below the $77,100 local resistance band. Analysts specify that while these institutional redemptions coincided with price struggles, they do not constitute definitive proof of causation. However, the data suggests that institutional buyers did not provide consistent support during this period of overhead supply.
| ETF Asset | Friday Net Flow | Weekly Net Flow | Trading Volume | Net Assets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Bitcoin ETFs | – $13.29 million | – $462.73 million | $2.60 billion | $97.58 billion |
| US Ether ETFs | + $216.41 million | + $216.41 million | N/A | N/A |
In contrast, US spot Ether ETFs received $216.41 million on Friday, completing their fourth consecutive week of net inflows. While the divergence in flows does not directly indicate funds shifting from Bitcoin to Ether, the selective demand highlights shifting sentiment among institutional investors.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin must secure a strong move above $81,700 to shift focus toward the $83,600 valuation ceiling and then $88,700, where trader cost bases cluster. A failure to do so could lead to repeated tests of the current supply zone and possible declines toward defined support levels.
CryptoQuant emphasizes that the path forward relies on overcoming layered resistance, with each band above $77,100 representing potential hurdles for buyers. Ongoing ETF outflows and long-term holder selling reinforce the need for increased demand before a sustainable breakout can be confirmed.
