XRP has seen a notable surge of over 3.5% in the last 24 hours, driven by dynamic activities in the derivatives market and renewed confidence among investors. Major call options on Deribit with expiration dates set for July 25 at $3 and $4, along with $2.80 call options expiring on September 28, have witnessed increased buying interest. Since July 1, two million contracts have been attracted to the $3 options, with open positions rising accordingly. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have heightened expectations by estimating a 95% chance for the SEC to approve a spot XRP ETF. Furthermore, Ripple 
$1 announced its application for a national banking license on July 2, Wednesday. These developments collectively strengthen market confidence that the price might surpass the $3 threshold.
XRP Options Market Shows Strong Indicators of Growth
According to data provider Amberdata, since July 1, the $3 call options have been the most traded contracts, with investors engaging in aggressive buying while market makers positioned on the opposite side. If the price exceeds $3 by the expiration date of July 25, buyers will gain. In contrast, the $2.80 call option primarily sees sellers in action, reinforcing the belief in higher short-term price targets.
The increasing interest in options aligns with the widespread belief that a spot XRP ETF is nearly certain to be approved. The analysts’ 95% probability estimate notably raises expectations for rapidly growing institutional demand.
Ripple’s national banking license application also bolsters institutional confidence. CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted that approval would bring both state (NYDFS) and federal oversight, aiming to set an unprecedented trust standard in the stablecoin market. Market participants assess that this regulatory framework could expand the utility areas for XRP coin.
Current Outlook of the XRP/BTC Pair
Since the peak in April, the XRP/BTC pair on Binance has been limited by a narrowing falling wedge formation. The price’s breakout above the upper trend line on July 2 indicates a loss in the sellers’ strength and a shift in the market dynamics favoring buyers. Falling wedges are often precursors to upward movements, and this breakout has opened pathways for XRP to aim for higher values against Bitcoin 
$78,415.
However, the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages are still below the 200-day average with a downward inclination. It’s essential to acknowledge that moving averages are lagging indicators. Hence, signals from the formation are considered more critical than the negative crossover of the averages. The market is pricing in both the technical breakout and the ETF approval along with Ripple’s licensing process, supporting the upward potential.
