XRP continues to trade below a key technical threshold in its July 1, 2026 sessions, as traders and analysts set their sights on the $1.65 level. This price point, which aligns with the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) on the monthly chart, is seen as a crucial indicator for confirming a sustained breakout. As of press time, XRP stood at $1.04, having slipped 0.11% in the past 24 hours and 4.01% over the past week. Trading volume, meanwhile, rose 0.51% to $1.61 billion.
Key moving averages in technical analysis
Analyst Egrag Crypto notes that XRP started July under the 50-period SMA on the monthly chart. According to Egrag, the $1.65 level serves as a significant barrier in terms of the macro outlook. The analyst points out that in previous cycles, XRP’s price bottoms have often formed near the 88-period SMA, with broad upward moves typically following these levels being tested.
Egrag Crypto emphasizes that as long as XRP remains below $1.65, the asset is caught in a macro consolidation. A decisive break above this level would, in Egrag’s view, sharply change the overall picture.
The highest-probability scenario in the analyst’s forecast map is a retest of the 88-period SMA, assigned a 55% likelihood. The chance of rapidly reclaiming the 50-period SMA and preventing a deeper pullback is put at 30%. A third scenario, where XRP dips below the 88-period SMA and the macro recovery stretches over a longer period, is given a 15% chance.
Upside targets: $7.50 and $42
Egrag Crypto suggests that if XRP breaks above $1.65, it could trigger a structural shift in the chart pattern. The analyst identifies $7.50 as the first major expansion target, with $42 cited as a potential longer-term, historically derived level. Until the price decisively clears the 50-period SMA, however, Egrag maintains a cautious stance.
The analyst highlights that previous cycles have seen strong expansion moves after lows formed around the 88-period average, and market participants are watching closely to see if this pattern will repeat.
Derivatives data signals limited market appetite
Short-term sentiment remains muted in derivative markets as well. According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures trading volume slipped 2.14% to $1.70 billion, while open interest declined 2.73% to $2.27 billion. The funding rate for open positions in XRP hovered at 0.0027%.
Mini glossary: Open interest refers to the total size of contracts in futures markets that have not yet been closed. The funding rate is a periodic payment designed to keep perpetual futures markets balanced between long and short positions.
Claims about Japan’s XRP holdings draw attention
Another noteworthy point in the market comes from X platform analyst Xrp Herald, who claims that Japan’s total XRP holdings now exceed $60 billion. The post highlights Japan’s long-standing status as one of the strongest markets for XRP, attributing this to institutional relationships with SBI Holdings, robust retail interest, and increased blockchain-related activity.
Xrp Herald also underscores the sustained momentum for XRP in Japanese financial markets, naming SBI Holdings as one of the largest corporate holders of XRP globally. SBI Holdings is a major financial group based in Japan and is well-known for its ongoing initiatives connected to the Ripple ecosystem.
