Bitcoin (BTC) price performance factors now include spot Bitcoin ETFs as of January. The demand, inflows, and outflows reflect the tendencies of new investors, which is significant. We observed significant fluctuations in BTC price in the first quarter of 2024, triggered by ETF data. The last major downturn was precisely due to this. So, what’s the current situation?
Spot Bitcoin ETF Data
April 1st was crucial following the relatively weak inflows we saw last week. The BTC price retracement to the $60,775 support level was linked to the Genesis GBTC asset sales during the week of March 20th. Now, investors need to closely follow both macroeconomic developments and ETF and other factors.
The most anticipated information was how much net inflow Grayscale saw on April 1st. This data has recently arrived. We saw an inflow of $166.9 million to the IBIT ETF. However, since GBTC outflows were $302.6 million, sales have not been offset yet. Other ETF data are as follows;
- Franklink net inflow zero.
- ARK saw an outflow of $0.3 million.
- Bitwise had an inflow of $1.1 million.
- VanEck inflow was $2 million.
Data for Fidelity has not arrived yet, and looking at the data so far, there was a net outflow on April 1st. Since $133 million of the GBTC outflows have not been covered, Fidelity must have seen an inflow above this amount to surprise.
Will Cryptocurrencies Fall?
Unless there is a big surprise, the net outflow through the ETF channel will be confirmed in a few hours, and after Fidelity’s data arrives, we will have passed the first net outflow day of the week. Outflows in the ETF channel also negatively affected demand in crypto exchanges, so it is likely that we will see the BTC price below $69,000 in a few hours.
Moreover, Fidelity usually sees inflows behind Blackrock, and even if it sees an inflow of $200 million, investors may still feel a negative impact on the price due to FOMO from hundreds of millions in net inflows. If we look at volume data, Grayscale, Fidelity, and Blackrock volumes have decreased. Despite the drop in volume, the high GBTC outflow is an extra negative situation. In conclusion, a downturn in cryptocurrencies can be expected. However, since no one can see the future, there’s also a chance that another price catalyst could unexpectedly drive BTC prices up in a few hours.
