The month of October began on a positive note for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin 
$82,774 surpassing the $106,000 threshold and Ethereum 
$2,482 exceeding $4,300. In its latest market analysis, QCP anticipates that economic indicators such as ISM and non-farm employment data from the United States will continue to confirm a gradually softening yet resilient economic landscape. According to analysts, the rebound in the CESI index, the GDPNow pointing to a quarterly annualized rate of about 3.3%, and the core PCE remaining at 2.9% indicate strong consumer demand. While a 100 basis point interest rate cut in 2024 is still unfolding its effects on the economy, the 25 basis point insurance cut last month is perceived as a weak argument for accelerating rate cuts. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty has pushed yields upwards and lowered expectations for rate cuts within the year.
Macroeconomic Outlook and the Fed Pathway
According to QCP, the activity data indicates moderate growth in the U.S. The S&P Global Manufacturing Index remains steady around 52 despite tariffs and labor market cooling. Additionally, while the rate of disinflation has slowed, it has not reversed. The ISM employment component does not signal a strong recovery in payrolls. Within this context, QCP analysts expect the labor market to bottom out at the start of 2026 and note that policy adjustments remain focused on managing employment risks.
As inflation approaches 3%, the easing is expected to remain shallow. Analysts highlighted the duality in interest rates: a flattening trend in the short term with easing tendencies, while in the long term remaining sticky due to term premium and supply dynamics. Better-than-expected employment data released on Friday could increase yields and pressure stocks, thus flattening the curve. Conversely, data falling below expectations could confirm a gradual easing and steepen the curve.
QCP views Washington’s budget disputes as having a limited impact on prices. The government shutdown is expected to have a limited income effect due to the continuation of essential services and retroactive salary payments. Analysts noted that during the 35-day shutdown period in 2018–2019, the S&P 500 rose approximately 10%. Due to simultaneous correlation, it was suggested that rather than chasing opening gaps on Bitcoin, corrections should be considered.
Anticipation Builds for Upcoming Cryptocurrency Data
Cryptocurrency investors are keenly watching the data releases due today and for the rest of the week. Today, the ISM Manufacturing Index (expected 49.3) stands out. Under the headings of employment, new orders, and backlogs, data will be closely followed for payrolls and production pace insights. Due to recent discussions, QCP analysts expect high interest in the non-farm employment data. Consequently, Thursday’s announcements on Jobless Claims and Consumer Confidence are considered as potential confirmations of a turnaround from the bottom.
The Non-Farm Payroll data release on Friday (expected 50,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate) is anticipated to be crucial in determining market direction. The central question revolves around whether there will be a deviation from last month’s 22,000 new jobs or if it signals the beginning of a softening trend consistent with ISM employment.
