Bitcoin’s price has plummeted to its lowest level in two months, triggering a new debate in the cryptocurrency market. The significant drop in value since its peak in November 2025 has begun to challenge investor confidence. The recent decline raises questions about whether this is merely a temporary correction or the onset of a more prolonged bear market. The situation is closely monitored, as market technical indicators and liquidity conditions suggest a persistent downward trend.
How Did Bitcoin’s Decline Unfold?
Bitcoin has seen a descent of approximately $14,700 from its peak of around $98,000 about two weeks ago, dropping to approximately $83,000. This nearly 15% decline indicates a gradual and consistent selling pressure. Despite a weakening US dollar, Bitcoin’s failure to attract safe-haven demand supports the view that the decline is more due to market cycles than macroeconomic conditions.
On-chain data and technical indicators reveal that liquidity inflow is weakening, and buyers remain cautious. The contraction in trading volumes across the cryptocurrency market, combined with ongoing poor performance in altcoins, has intensified the pressure on Bitcoin. The current scenario suggests a cautious waiting period prevails in the market.
Analysts highlight the $80,000 level as a psychological threshold, while efforts to maintain above this band will be crucial for short-term direction. The $74,000 to $75,000 range remains a key support area from the past, closely watched by market participants.
Analysts’ Views and Potential Bear Market Scenarios
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen compares the recent pullback to previous market cycles, asserting that Bitcoin might have entered a bear market. Cowen notes that Bitcoin typically peaks in the last quarter of cycle years, then embarks on a downtrend unaffected by news. This timing pattern is evident in the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 cycles.
Cowen suggests Bitcoin may have peaked in October 2025, following a downward trend since then. He draws strong parallels between the market’s current state and the slow, silent decline of 2019, emphasizing that sustainable recovery is hard to achieve without improved liquidity conditions.
Historical data reveals that Bitcoin bear markets generally last about a year. While the declines of 2018 and 2022 align with this timeframe, the current cycle’s weakness might persist into late 2026. Historical scenarios indicate the price could retract to $50,000, with a severe sell-off potentially bringing the $30,000 range into focus.
