David Schwartz, the Emeritus CTO of Ripple, recently reignited the debate in the cryptocurrency world regarding exaggerated expectations about XRP’s price. Utilizing social media platform X, Schwartz offered a clear analysis of the disconnect between the altcoin‘s market value and online predictions. Rather than specifying a precise price target, Schwartz employed a framework based on fundamental financial mathematics. His assessment prompted questions about why investor behavior does not align with the bold claims being made.
Analytical Approach to XRP’s Price
The discussion was triggered by a request from an individual asking Schwartz to explicitly state to the community that XRP will not reach $50 or $100. Reflecting on the past, Schwartz noted that he once considered the idea of XRP reaching $0.25 improbable and avoided making definitive predictions. Instead, he provided reasoning on how rational investor expectations can reflect in pricing.
According to Schwartz, if a significant number of rational investors believed there was a 10% chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, it would not be economically sensible to sell at current prices. Such expectations would result in aggressive buying, rapidly depleting supply and preventing the price from staying far below $10. The continuation of current price levels, however, indicates that these beliefs are not backed by capital.
In his statements, Schwartz also took a firm stand, asserting that those advocating for high targets are contradictory in their investment behaviors, and claims to the contrary are unsubstantiated. He recommended that investors perform their own calculations employing probability and time horizon variables.
Market Indicators and Cautious Scenarios
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at approximately $1.75. Over the past week, the altcoin lost more than 8% of its value and around 44% annually. Analysts note that the prolonged sideways trend of about 434 days marks one of XRP’s longest consolidation periods. The price remaining approximately 25% below the 200-day moving average supports a cautious technical outlook.
Despite short-term weaknesses, some positive signals are emerging. Spot XRP ETFs traded in the U.S. recorded net inflows of approximately $92 million in January. On-chain data indicates the creation of 42 new wallets holding at least 1 million XRP since the beginning of 2026.
In the institutional sector, more measured expectations prevail. According to 2026 projections by 21Shares, should ETF flows continue and Ripple’s stablecoin initiatives be adopted, a base scenario target around $2.45 exists. This approach offers a more realistic framework against extreme forecasts, aligning with Schwartz’s emphasis on expected value.
