Bitcoin’s price increased by less than 0.5% over the past 24 hours, inching closer to the $80,000 level but running into expected resistance. According to Luke Deans, a senior researcher at Bitwise, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has now reached the cost basis for short-term investors, meaning any sharp price move above this point could intensify selling pressure.
Fed stance and macro developments dominate sentiment
Market sentiment has also been shaped by new US inflation data for March and the impact of surging oil prices on risky assets. The price of West Texas crude jumped up to $110 a barrel, while lower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased fragility in the energy markets.
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged has had a weighty influence on market direction. The FOMC meeting was notable for its split opinions—the sharpest since 1992—with one member favoring a rate cut while three regional Fed presidents pushed back on any policy easing.
Amid this lack of consensus, Luke Deans highlighted that altcoins continue to move in lockstep with bitcoin, with a 180-day correlation as high as 97% and a beta nearing 99%. This means many tokens are acting almost as leveraged versions of bitcoin’s price swings.
Volatility and risk signals in market data
Over the last 24 hours, open interest (OI) in futures dropped more than 2% to $119 billion, while trading volume surged by 26% to $208 billion. This pattern suggests a flight from risk, with traders closing positions and pulling capital from the market.
Leveraged positions worth more than $500 million were liquidated across exchanges, mostly from bullish bets. A rise in bond yields left many investors caught on the wrong side of the market as broader momentum weakened.
Open interest for bitcoin and ether futures each fell by roughly 2% and 1.7%, respectively. Although most major crypto assets experienced similar declines, Dogecoin’s open interest remains close to its highest level in six months.
With the exception of XMR, XLM, TRX, and CC, sellers dominated most cryptocurrencies over the past day, pushing total volume into negative territory. This trend has fueled expectations that prices may fall further in the short term.
Options trends and campaign updates
Bitcoin’s 30-day options volatility index (BVIV) slid to 41%, extending its drop from the February peak of 97%. This reflects lower market sensitivity to negative macro factors such as rising bond yields or oil prices. Ethereum’s volatility index followed a similar trajectory.
On the Deribit exchange, protective put options remain more expensive than bullish call options. A significant open interest at the $80,000 bitcoin strike is considered likely to prompt selling pressure, as market makers may hedge upward moves near this level by selling into rallies.
The term structure of options indicates that while short-term stress is easing, uncertainty further out is being priced in. Data from Amberdata revealed a large bitcoin put spread trade targeting the $72,000 and $65,000 levels, suggesting expectations of a decline towards $65,000.
Elsewhere, memecoin platform Pump.fun announced a new feature allowing projects to donate a portion of transaction fees to verified charities. The platform’s largest ongoing campaign has already raised $12,800 for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.
Pump.fun also declared that, starting today, it will stop using all revenue to buy and burn PUMP tokens. Instead, for the next year, 50% of net revenue will be allocated automatically for buy-backs and token burns, with the remainder going to hiring, product development, and marketing.
According to analysts, beneath the surface, conditions typical of periods of rising volatility are developing. Liquidity remains thin, and gains and losses are largely counterbalancing each other, highlighting ongoing market indecision.
The PUMP token slumped by more than 7% in the past 24 hours, while the broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) shed about 2.2%.
