According to the latest CryptoQuant data, 51.6 percent of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently valued below its cost basis. This marks a sharp increase from just a month ago, when the figure stood at only 34 percent. As a result, the proportion of coins in profit and those at a loss is now nearly balanced, a notable shift for the market.
How is this figure calculated?
This indicator is determined by tracking the last on-chain move price of each Bitcoin. In simple terms, if the current Bitcoin price falls below the level at which a coin was last moved or acquired, that unit of supply is counted as being “underwater.” The data is closely watched because it directly reveals how many investors are currently facing cost pressure.
Glossary: The cost basis refers to the price at which a coin last changed hands on the blockchain. The loss ratio is the percentage of total supply with a current price below its cost basis.
What rising loss levels suggest about investor actions
A rising proportion of underwater supply means more investors are currently holding Bitcoin at a loss. This situation can drive some to consider selling, while others may prefer to hold on and wait for a reversal. Unlike survey-based sentiment indicators, on-chain data like this provides a direct view of real investor actions and realized prices, making it especially valuable for market watchers.
A historically rare threshold
According to Onchainmind, reliable price records for Bitcoin go back to 2010. In roughly 93 percent of that history, more than half of the circulating Bitcoin supply was in profit. Therefore, seeing over 50 percent in loss is a highly unusual situation in historical terms.
Periods when the loss ratio in supply is split almost evenly, as seen now, have often aligned with major inflection points and bear market lows in the Bitcoin cycle.
Similar signals appeared during the lows of 2015, throughout the sharp selloff in 2018, and after the FTX collapse in 2022. The current chart now shows this indicator returning to the same critical region as during those market pivots.
No fast recovery on the horizon
However, historical data shows that these levels do not always trigger rapid rebounds. In previous cycles, Bitcoin often traded sideways in a volatile range for extended periods rather than bouncing back sharply. During these consolidation phases, the market digested losses, and the ownership structure gradually evolved.
This suggests the current situation may bring about a prolonged grind rather than a capitulation driven by sharp price drops. Sometimes, instead of a quick plunge to a clear bottom, the market tests investors’ patience with weeks or even months of choppy trading. While this data alone cannot pinpoint an exact market bottom, it does indicate that Bitcoin is trading much closer to typical historical lows than highs.
