Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its weakest periods following the 2024 halving, with the top cryptocurrency trading below $60,000 according to CoinGecko data. This development stands out in the market, as previous post-halving periods have historically been marked by strong price performances.
The typical halving cycle has broken down
The Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years or every 210,000 blocks, is designed to halve the rate at which new coins are created, typically serving as a supportive mechanism for price growth. In previous cycles, market participants observed this supply shock resulting in significant upward momentum and strong returns.
Price performance is tracked over a full 1,460-day cycle, starting from each halving event. Historically, these cycles unfolded in three phases. The first phase generally saw rapid gains driven by the supply shock and heightened speculation. This was followed by sharp sell-offs, extended periods of sideways trading, and a final recovery in the approach to the next halving.
Investors who bought Bitcoin during the 2024 halving now face clear negative returns in the current cycle.
Weaker results compared to previous cycles
In previous cycles, the period following the halving delivered exceptionally high returns for Bitcoin investors. While the latest cycle saw a slowdown in gains, it still ended profitably, with the 1,460-day timeframe closing in April 2024 at a base price of $63,514.
However, this current cycle has not repeated the pattern of post-halving rallies. After a period of sideways movement, Bitcoin turned lower, disappointing those who anticipated a strong surge on the heels of the halving.
| Indicator | Previous cycle | Current cycle |
|---|---|---|
| Initial post-halving outlook | Positive returns | Negative returns |
| Price action | Rally phase observed | Sideways, then decline |
| Cycle closing level | $63,514 | Below $60,000 |
Macroeconomic pressures dominate the market
Chart analysis indicates the line representing the current cycle has dipped below its initial starting point, suggesting that investors who bought during the 2024 halving are now in loss territory. Experts note that this pattern is unusual compared to previous post-halving trends.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz attributes the pressure on Bitcoin to ongoing anxieties around industry strategies and concerns over potential interest rate hikes. Galaxy Digital, headquartered in the US, is a major player specializing in digital asset investment and blockchain technology.
Mike Novogratz explained that the stress on Bitcoin stems from both the crisis of confidence around industry strategies and fears of further rate hikes.
As the market looks ahead, the primary question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild a structural base in the later stages of the current post-halving cycle. For now, data suggest the typical robust recovery seen in previous cycles is notably absent this time around.
Despite hopes for a repeat of historical patterns, the current environment has proven less resilient, forcing investors to reconsider their expectations in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.
With macroeconomic uncertainty clouding the outlook and hallmark technical patterns failing to deliver, analysts remain watchful for signals of a potential turnaround or further market weakness in the months ahead.
