The recent slight recovery in the cryptocurrency market has rekindled short-term hopes for certain altcoins. Among the most notable performers has been Aptos, which surged by 1.34% in the last 24 hours and delivered an impressive 15.8% gain over the week. Despite this upward movement, the continued long-term downward trend raises questions about the sustainability of this increase. The level of $1.72 has especially emerged as a critical resistance point closely monitored by investors.
Short-Term Recovery Faces Long-Term Pressure
Aptos’ price began to follow a downward trend after losing its main support at $4.32 during the sharp market crash in October. The current rise is being evaluated as a “relief rally” from a technical perspective. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from the oversold territory indicates short-term buying interest, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator falling back to 2022 levels reveals that selling pressure remains strong.
In the short term, the price appears to be squeezed between $1.56 and $1.69. While this range offers trading opportunities for traders, there has not been a clear signal indicating a change in trend direction. A sustained breakout above $1.70 could target the $1.90–$2.00 range. Conversely, a drop below $1.56 might trigger new declines.
Impact of Bitcoin and Other Market Developments
The price movements of Aptos continue to be heavily dependent on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Bitcoin’s recent 1.5% increase, pushing it closer to $90,000, has offered temporary relief in the altcoin market. According to analysts, the approaching Bitcoin options expiry could heighten market volatility and potentially spur a short-term rally.
Meanwhile, another notable development in the crypto market is the increased transaction volumes on the Solana network. The growing interest in memecoin projects on the Solana ecosystem has caused investor capital to shift away from other Layer-1 projects like Aptos. This situation is viewed as a factor that complicates Aptos’ recovery process.
In the long term, Aptos continues to be technically strong due to its Move programming language and scalability claims. However, on-chain data indicates a decline in transaction volume and developer activity in recent months. This scenario suggests that for a robust trend reversal, not only technical but also fundamental improvements are necessary.
In conclusion, the recent uptick in Aptos’ price can be considered a technical relief during a period when the market was entirely crashing. Bitcoin-induced short-term movements might drive the price upward, but the current data does not confirm the end of the long-term downward trend. Therefore, investors are advised to focus on risk management and proceed cautiously with short-term trades, rather than expecting a permanent trend reversal.
