Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has raised concerns about the widening gap between Bitcoin’s price performance and the soaring Nasdaq 100 index, warning that it could signal mounting tensions in global dollar liquidity. Sharing his latest analysis on his personal blog, Hayes argued that, while gold and equities have surged in recent years, Bitcoin’s lagging returns in early 2026 may be an unsurprising outcome of tightening monetary conditions.
Bitcoin’s Dependence on Dollar Liquidity
Hayes characterizes Bitcoin as a high-beta asset still deeply tethered to dollar liquidity, explaining that its inability to keep pace with a surging Nasdaq can be traced back to a slowdown in credit creation within the United States. This divergence, he suggests, marks a period where the existing American financial paradigm is facing significant liquidity stress. Under these conditions, Bitcoin’s fate is closely linked to shifts in the availability of dollar-based credit.
Central Banks Drive Gold Surge While Bitcoin Lags
Emphasizing evolving market dynamics, Hayes points out that two main forces now set prices: central banks and sovereign buyers on one side, and retail investors reliant on liquidity on the other. He notes that, since 2022, more countries have turned to gold as a hedge against the risk of U.S. asset seizures—a trend that has diluted gold’s classic relationship with inflation and fueled persistent demand from official institutions.
In contrast, Hayes stresses that Bitcoin is still not seen as a “reserve asset” by central banks. Instead, Bitcoin’s price remains closely tied to movements in dollar credit supply. As dollar liquidity has tightened, Bitcoin’s period of weakness emerges as a logical response, he asserts. Meanwhile, the ongoing Nasdaq rally, supercharged by artificial intelligence enthusiasm, appears to offer little material support for cryptocurrencies.
Outlook for 2026 and Hayes’s Long-Term Perspective
While Hayes maintains a cautious stance in the short term, he holds a more optimistic outlook further ahead. He projects that markets could bottom out early in 2026 and anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually returning to balance sheet expansion—injecting fresh liquidity and possibly driving Bitcoin to the $250,000 mark.
Hayes has shared that much of his personal portfolio is now allocated to Bitcoin, Ethena (ENA), and select privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. He also expects both Democratic and Republican administrations in the upcoming 2026 U.S. political cycle to increase government spending, which, in his view, will bolster prices of riskier assets as more liquidity flows into the markets.
Meanwhile, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, highlights a different concern: he warns that proposed changes to Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism, aimed at tackling spam-related issues, pose the most significant risk. Back argues that any fundamental alteration to how the network operates could jeopardize its established security and stability, and such changes should be avoided whenever possible.
Hayes interprets Bitcoin’s decoupling from equities as a clear signal of tightening U.S. dollar liquidity.
Back contends that drastic changes to Bitcoin’s core principles would introduce both technical and societal risks.
