BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared that he is no longer accumulating Bitcoin for the time being, despite the cryptocurrency’s recent upward momentum. Hayes explained that he will not re-enter the market with new capital unless and until the US Federal Reserve signals a clear expansion in the money supply. This cautious move highlights his disciplined approach, opting to stand on the sidelines until signs point more conclusively to fresh market growth.
Why Hayes Is Waiting
Although Bitcoin has rallied in recent weeks, Hayes is keeping a close eye on an indicator he calls “Net Liquidity.” This metric, which deducts the Treasury General Account and Reverse Repo balances from the Fed’s balance sheet, offers a sharper look at true financial liquidity. According to Hayes, while Bitcoin prices have risen, the amount of dollars actually circulating in the market has not increased to a significant degree. He warns that the prevailing market conditions could mislead those expecting a straightforward upward trajectory, underlining the risk of reading too much into price action alone.
Key Support and Resistance Levels in Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to trade below the psychologically important $90,000 resistance level. Hayes’ analysis suggests that if Bitcoin fails to break above this threshold soon, a correction down to $60,000 could materialize, potentially flushing out latecomers drawn in during the most recent surge. If the $60,000 support is breached, this could set off a domino effect of liquidations and ignite considerable short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, institutional players on Wall Street have been making strategic Bitcoin purchases but have yet to trigger an aggressive move upward.
Hayes maintains that a true surge in crypto markets hinges on whether the Fed begins monetary expansion. As long as the central bank holds its current tight policy stance, he expects Bitcoin to move sideways or even drift slightly downward, rather than mounting a sustained rally.
During a recent podcast appearance, Hayes elaborated on his stance:
If I had just one dollar left to invest right now, I wouldn’t put it into Bitcoin. I’d wait until it’s unequivocal that the Fed is actively increasing the money supply.
While Hayes acknowledges that geopolitical risks may sometimes generate demand for safe-haven assets in the short term, he reiterates that the primary driver for crypto markets is still real-world liquidity shifts. He sees changes in the actual amount of money circulating as the core force shaping market outcomes.
Recent data shows Bitcoin diverging from various traditional financial assets, a decoupling that could ramp up volatility. Should the Fed be compelled to lower interest rates, market participants argue that Bitcoin could rapidly surge past the $90,000 ceiling.
Conversely, Hayes believes that as long as monetary policy remains restrictive, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to achieve any breakout to the upside. He is watching his Net Liquidity indicator closely, planning to resume capital inflows only when it clearly turns positive and signals a more favorable environment.
