Avalanche (AVAX) is displaying signs of renewed strength, with growing institutional holdings and increased staking activity supporting the latest price action. After reclaiming key support levels, AVAX is now trading near $7.17, putting the recent $8.30 high back on traders’ radar as price targets in the $9.50 to $10 range come into focus.
AVAX responds to monthly support
Recent price charts indicate that AVAX has rebounded from the lower boundary of its long-term bullish structure after spending three months testing this support. The token moved back toward the $7.30 to $7.40 area following this extended consolidation. According to analyst Honeybear, the monthly Supertrend indicator places the lower bullish support near $6.29, highlighting how AVAX has repeatedly defended this region during the year’s downtrend.
However, the price remains well below broader trend resistance levels around $17 and $20.71, underlining that while the technical outlook is improving, a full bullish reversal would require a much stronger move. Reclaiming $10 on a monthly basis is seen as a step forward, while a move above $17 could confirm a larger structural shift for Avalanche.
Mini dictionary: Supertrend – A technical analysis indicator that highlights trend direction and dynamic support or resistance by factoring in price and volatility, often helping traders identify potential reversal points.
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AAPLHolding the $6.20 to $6.30 region remains essential for base development, with a clean monthly close above $10 needed to strengthen the bullish outlook.
Retest of lower supports possible
Avalanche recently broke through a descending trendline that had restricted its upward movements since June, followed by a rapid rise to the upper $7 range. The price later consolidated near $7.30 to $7.40. Charts shared by analyst Cihan Altcoin suggest AVAX might revisit the former trendline support near $6.60 to $6.80 before making a further move higher. Such technical retests can provide structural confidence if new buyers emerge at these levels.
Should support hold, AVAX could retest $7.80 to $8.00, aligning with previous swing highs. However, a sustained drop below the reclaimed trendline may put the $6.20 to $6.40 region back in focus, weakening the current bullish narrative.
| Support Level | Resistance Level | Potential Target |
|---|---|---|
| $6.20–$6.30 | $8.30 | $9.50–$10.00 |
| $6.60–$6.80 | $7.80–$8.00 | $17.00–$21.00 (longer term) |
Bulls defend $7.05
In recent sessions, AVAX broke out of a multi-month base established between $6 and $7. The initial rally reached as high as $8.30, signaling a possible trend change. Analyst KhonshuArc identifies $7.05 as the key level bulls must protect for the uptrend to remain intact.
KhonshuArc emphasizes that maintaining support above $7.05 is critical for AVAX’s bullish setup, enabling another attempt at $8.30 and beyond.
Daily moving averages remain underneath price, lending further support. Surpassing $8.30 would bring $9.50 to $10 or even $12 into view. If AVAX slips below $7.05, it could open room for a pullback toward the $6.60 to $6.80 zone, or even lower supports if negative momentum builds.
Rising institutional activity and staking
Institutional exposure to Avalanche is growing. Asset managers Bitwise, VanEck, and Grayscale collectively hold over 5 million AVAX, with total institutional holdings around $38.27 million. Notably, around 3.49 million AVAX are staked, including the bulk of VanEck’s allocation. ETF-related holdings have climbed 34.2% over the past 13 weeks, reflecting increased institutional engagement and a rising share of tokens locked into the network for rewards.
Roughly 80% of VanEck’s AVAX is currently staked, suggesting that institutions are seeking more direct participation in Avalanche rather than adopting a purely passive investment strategy.
Higher staking rates mean a reduced liquid supply, which can amplify price movements as demand shifts. VanEck, Bitwise, and Grayscale are each prominent digital asset managers known for their diversified cryptocurrency investment products.
Mini dictionary: Staking – The process of locking up cryptocurrency to support network operations such as validating transactions, where participants earn rewards for their contribution; staked tokens are typically restricted from immediate sale.
Technical outlook and next steps
The immediate outlook for AVAX now largely depends on buyers’ ability to defend the $7.00 to $7.05 region. A convincing push above $7.80 would target the $8.30 resistance, and a breakout past this level could lead to further gains toward $9.50 and $10. Nevertheless, major resistance zones remain near $17 and $21 on the higher timeframe charts, seen as longer-term objectives rather than immediate possibilities.
If AVAX fails to hold $7.05, a deeper retracement could develop, with significant support reappearing between $6.20 and $6.30. Bulls need to maintain price above these clusters for the recent recovery structure to remain valid.
Trend reversal hopes grow
With a more constructive base structure and mounting institutional engagement, Avalanche enters a pivotal phase. Another successful defense of $7.05, coupled with a clear break above $8.30, would reinforce bullish sentiment and may shift attention to higher resistance levels. Conversely, renewed weakness below $7.05 could suggest the multi-month accumulation was insufficient for a full reversal.
- Bullish scenario: Sustaining above $7.05, reclaiming $8.30, and targeting $9.50 to $10 would reinforce the uptrend, with $17 to $21 as longer-term targets.
- Bearish scenario: Losing $7.05 could see AVAX drifting toward $6.60 to $6.80, with a decisive drop below $6.20 undermining the recovery structure.
Avalanche appears healthier than earlier in the year, but the next test will come from defending key support zones and building on recent momentum.
