Industry veteran Michael Terpin has cast doubt on the prospect of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in 2024, warning that the cryptocurrency may not have bottomed yet. Terpin, who entered the crypto space in 2013 and authored the book “Bitcoin Supercycle,” believes BTC could see a dip to around $57,000 in October before any significant rebound. As the founder of both Transform Group, a blockchain-focused PR firm, and the early investor network BitAngels, Terpin’s market insights carry significant weight in the sector.
Terpin’s market call: No bull rally until $100,000 breaks
According to Terpin, Bitcoin must surpass the $100,000 mark to officially launch a new bull market, yet no strong support appears to be forming near that level. Despite notable double-digit gains in April, Terpin underlines that the broader downtrend has not been broken, and expects the true market bottom to materialize near $57,000 later in the year.
Michael Terpin explains: “For Bitcoin’s bull market to truly be underway, we need to reclaim the $100,000 level. At present, there’s little backing for that price zone. I anticipate a potential bottom around $57,000 in October.”
Meanwhile, many in the market remain more optimistic, arguing that the downturn ended when prices fell near $60,000 in February. Supporters of this view point to robust inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations as evidence of underlying strength.
Contrasting views from other analysts
Terpin’s cautious forecast stands in contrast to generally bullish industry sentiment. Jason Fernandes, market commentator and AdLunam co-founder, does not agree that Bitcoin has hit its lowest point. He argues the market has yet to experience a decisive “capitulation” period, where long-term holders exit positions en masse, a pattern typical of major bottoms.
Jason Fernandes comments: “Historically, real bottoms come when high leverage and macro uncertainty are largely cleared out. I don’t think we’ve reached that stage yet.”
In a recent CoinDesk interview, Terpin recalled a session in Asian markets when BTC was sharply rejected at the psychological threshold of $80,000, partially due to high oil prices. Fernandes also believes tightening global economic conditions continue to pressure risk assets. He notes that without a marked shift in monetary policy or a significant liquidation event, more downside in Bitcoin cannot be ruled out in the near term.
Record highs and psychological resistance
While Terpin maintains he does not expect BTC to break new records this year, Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, argues the door to new highs remains open. Greenspan highlights rising institutional participation and a fresh wave of investor interest as key drivers that could still propel Bitcoin upward in 2024.
Mati Greenspan emphasizes: “I may not share the ‘Crypto Godfather’s’ outlook, but current momentum from institutional investments and increased attention means another all-time high this year can’t be ruled out.”
Fernandes, however, warns that market sentiment has not yet reached the deep pessimism usually associated with long-term bottoms, suggesting a further dip may occur before a lasting price floor is established. He also stresses that while $100,000 has psychological significance, it should not be regarded as the sole indicator of a new rally. Surpassing this barrier, nonetheless, could inject significant momentum into the market.
