Bitcoin may not have found its bottom yet, and a new all-time high is unlikely this year, according to veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin. Active in the sector since 2013, Terpin is known for his book “Bitcoin Supercycle” and as a founder of both blockchain-focused Transform Group and BitAngels, one of the first crypto angel investor networks.
“The bottom hasn’t been reached yet” analysis
Terpin argues that for Bitcoin to enter a new bull market, it must first break above $100,000—a price level for which there currently appears to be little support. Instead, he anticipates that October will mark a bottom around $57,000, noting that despite double-digit price surges in April, the downtrend is ongoing for the cryptocurrency.
Terpin shares his view: “To confirm a new Bitcoin bull market, the price has to climb back over $100,000. So far, no real support is forming at that level. We might see a bottom at $57,000 in October.”
In contrast, the broader market sentiment is that the bear phase ended after prices dipped to $60,000 in February, with many believing a new rally is already underway. Supporters of this optimism point to strong inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs, as well as Bitcoin’s resilience despite geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices.
Differing views among market analysts
Terpin’s predictions run counter to much of the prevailing bullish sentiment in the crypto space. Jason Fernandes, an analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, disagrees with the idea that the market has bottomed out, noting that a true period of “capitulation”—when long-term holders exit positions en masse—has not yet occurred.
Fernandes comments: “In past cycles, real bottoms came as leverage and macro uncertainty largely faded. I believe we haven’t reached that stage yet.”
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin remarked that Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the $80,000 psychological level in Asian markets, partly impacted by higher oil prices. Fernandes added that the market has likely not yet hit the bottom, especially given ongoing economic tightening, which continues to weigh on risky assets. Without a clear policy shift or major liquidation event, further downside may be in store for cryptocurrencies.
Chances of a new record and psychological thresholds
While Terpin reiterates that he does not expect a new record for Bitcoin this year, Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, offers a more optimistic outlook. He believes fresh inflows from institutional investors and newcomers could still drive Bitcoin to a new peak within the year.
Greenspan expresses: “Though I don’t share the ‘Crypto Godfather’s’ view, strong expansion in institutional investment and growing interest could bring a new high this year.”
Fernandes, however, argues that current sentiment is not yet pessimistic enough for a true bottom and foresees another potential price decline before a lasting recovery. He also cautions against focusing solely on the $100,000 mark as a technical indicator for a new uptrend, even if breaking through that psychological threshold could add momentum to the market.
