Bitcoin has managed to dodge the bullet of direct impact from the SEC lawsuit, avoiding the significant losses experienced by altcoins. However, the threat to exchanges negatively influences Bitcoin liquidity, potentially causing a substantial decrease in BTC price in the future. The SEC lawsuits have marked one of the most critical weeks of the year for Bitcoin. Yet, due to macro-economic developments, volatility is expected to continue this week.
Current Status of Bitcoin
Negative sentiment from the SEC has triggered excessive selling in altcoins. This week, macroeconomic developments have provided a breather for investors following significant chaos. The United States is set to announce an important consumer price index report on June 13, followed by the interest rate decision on June 14.
Both these events will directly impact risk market investors. After an inflation rate of 4.9%, a decrease to 4.1% is anticipated, with little chance of a change in interest rates post the inflation data. Despite the decline in headline inflation remaining stable, Powell is expected to signal potential increases in the sticky core inflation due to continue in July.
Comment on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
On June 8, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) slipped below the 20-day exponential moving average (103) but bears struggle to sustain lower levels. Buyers attempt to push the index above the 20-day EMA, possibly triggering a rally to 104.7 and then to 106. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest the index could stay within the broad range of 100.82 to 106 for a while.
In the most optimistic scenario, a loss of the 20-day EMA could lead to a quick drop to 102, offering some relief to risk markets.
What Will Be the Value of Bitcoin (BTC)?
Bulls have managed to hold Bitcoin above the critical support of $25,250 for the past few days. Strong purchases have staved off a deeper correction. The falling moving averages favor the bears, but the positive divergence in the RSI suggests a possible reduction in selling pressure. Bulls will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($26,654), opening the way for a potential rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.
However, if this region cannot be overcome, the $25,250 support might be retested. If lost, the $20,000 bottom could become a potential target. Nevertheless, considering today’s macro developments, the trend may indicate a potential upward direction.
