As the news cycle unfolded, former US President Donald Trump continued to issue assertive statements, framing the coming hours as pivotal for the path ahead. Trump has now postponed the ceasefire deadline for the sixth time; despite the clock ticking down, neither an extension nor a fresh agreement has emerged. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms has begun transferring BTC holdings, while analytics firm Santiment warns of a critical new signal for markets. Today, we also look at the latest projections from a well-known crypto analyst.
Market alarm as sentiment shifts
Despite Trump’s flurry of public comments, Bitcoin has been hovering around the $70,000 mark. The US President is expected to deliver what will likely be his final remarks for the day at 10:30 p.m. local time, after which the focus will shift to whether a ceasefire agreement is signed by 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. Should this window pass without a deal, the US has signaled its intent to dismantle Iran’s energy infrastructure. The release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes follows soon thereafter, which may further stir volatility in crypto markets as investors weigh references to the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“Iranians should rise up against the regime, but the consequences will be severe. I have the best plan, though I won’t reveal it. I believe Iranians might be willing to risk infrastructure losses for freedom.
Iranians have until 8:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow. Talks with Iran seem to be going well. If we hadn’t bombed last year, Iran would now be a nuclear power.
Much of this is instinctive. We have an engaged and enthusiastic participant in the Iran negotiations. I can’t speak about a ceasefire. I hope I won’t have to target Iran’s energy plants.
I’d prefer the US to collect transit fees on the Strait rather than Iran. A key part of any Iran deal must be free traffic in the Strait. I need an acceptable agreement by Tuesday’s deadline.
The US is considering plans to destroy Iran’s bridges by tomorrow night. By midnight, all power plants could be offline. I don’t want to destroy Iran’s infrastructure. We came quite close to a provisional agreement before Iran stepped back. Iran’s only route to recovery may involve working with the US.”
Rising FOMO complicates the outlook
The next several hours are of vital importance for the markets. Just yesterday, Santiment signaled that sentiment was highly negative and that a reversal might be possible. Now, the company reports a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) alert at its highest level in three months, suggesting short-term greed among traders. Santiment warns that if market greed has spiked so sharply, there’s an increased chance that Bitcoin could move in the opposite direction of prevailing sentiment. Should the chaos continue and no ceasefire be achieved, Santiment anticipates that its second bearish signal may also be triggered.
“Is this latest rally just a false breakout? Our social media data show that market participants expect gains to continue, and we’re recording the third-highest greed score in roughly three months.
In times of excessive optimism, remember that markets often move against the crowd’s expectations…”
This new warning closely resembles the one issued yesterday, with the notable difference that this time, the anticipated move is not upward, but downward.
Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms recently transferred 500 BTC, a move interpreted as miners viewing the current price rally as an opportunity to sell. From this vantage point, the likelihood of a price drop appears to be rising.
Crypto analyst projects further correction
Roman Trading, a prominent crypto analyst, has consistently suggested that all indicators are pointing downward. While he acknowledges that anything could happen in the short term, he notes that there are no signs yet of a reversal in the longer-term structure. The downward momentum, he argues, persists—and as shown in his latest chart, he expects Bitcoin to soon break down below $51,000.
“Regardless of short-term trends, there’s still no indication of a wider reversal on higher timeframes. Broadly speaking, the market remains rangebound, downside momentum is ongoing, and trading volumes are currently low as prices rise. All signs point to a continuation of the macro downtrend.”
