Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped below a key cost basis of $77,700, raising the possibility that this level could become new resistance for recent investors, according to data from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Speculative buyers now underwater
The realized price, or average cost basis, for BTC bought between one and three months ago is now higher than the current market price, with Bitcoin currently trading near $76,500. This group of investors, considered by analysts to be speculative traders, have traditionally served as a volatile force in the market, often reacting quickly to price swings.
CryptoQuant reported that, in Bitcoin bull cycles, the cost basis of these more recent buyers has acted as a rising line of support. However, if Bitcoin remains below this cost basis, $77,700 could shift from support to resistance as traders seek to exit positions when prices return to their average purchase level.
When BTC moves below this realized price, speculative traders may view a return to breakeven as an opportunity to exit, causing the cost basis to act as resistance.
CryptoQuant’s Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands, which measure aggregate positions for various investor groups, currently place the next significant support zone at $68,400. This level reflects a 12% net loss for the same cohort of recent buyers.
The gap between Bitcoin’s price and the Trader Realized Price has narrowed over recent weeks, as the realized price band has continued drifting upward even while the market saw a mild corrective phase.
Support levels and risk for short-term holders
Alongside concerns for those who bought Bitcoin between one and three months ago, the broader class of short-term holders is nearing a similar inflection point. Short-term holders (STHs) are investors who have held their coins for up to 155 days. Their average cost basis currently stands at $75,832.
If Bitcoin falls further, short-term holders risk slipping into a net loss position. The STH cost basis has historically functioned as a boundary during uptrends, offering support, and as resistance during market downturns.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for short-term holders is presently at 1.012. This metric, which compares the current market value of STH coins to their realized value (the prices at which they last moved onchain), provides insight into profitability levels among recent investors.
Mini dictionary: Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, a measure used by analysts to gauge whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued compared to the price paid by investors, calculated by dividing the current market value by the realized value of coins held by a specific cohort.
If the MVRV ratio drops below the breakeven point associated with the STH realized price, CryptoQuant identifies the next significant psychological support at an MVRV reading of 0.85. This threshold is referred to by analysts as a zone of “tactical capitulation” among short-term holders.
The start of June was the most recent occasion when Bitcoin fell below this 0.85 MVRV marker, followed by a recovery in mid-August. These indicators highlight the shifting sentiment and risk profile among recent Bitcoin entrants over the past quarter.
| Metric | Current Value | Support/Resistance Level | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trader Realized Price (1-3 month holders) | $77,700 | Potential resistance | Recent buyers may sell at breakeven |
| STH Realized Price (up to 155 days) | $75,832 | Short-term support | STHs at risk of net loss |
| Next Major Support (12% net loss band) | $68,400 | Support zone | Aggregate losses deepen if breached |
| MVRV Ratio (STH cohort) | 1.012 | Support at 0.85 | Capitulation risk if breached |
The metric indicates that dropping below the MVRV breakeven point for short-term holders places the next psychological support at an MVRV of 0.85, an area analysts describe as tactical capitulation.
