In recent days, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, expectations of a Bitcoin rally have gained traction, with some analysts predicting that levels above $88,000 could be within reach. However, recent price action suggests the market has not embraced this optimism just yet.
Signals from technical indicators
Bitcoin’s price has approached a critical descending resistance line that has been in place since October 2025. This trendline, formed from the $126,000 peak, has been connecting lower highs for nearly six months. Such trendlines are common in chart analysis and often reflect the broader direction and strength of the market.
At present, after touching this trendline, the price has started to pull back. This move is commonly labeled a ‘trendline rejection’ in technical analysis and indicates that sellers have regained control at this level. The ongoing pattern of lower peaks over the last six months is widely regarded as clear evidence of a persistently bearish market.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price climbed from around $60,000 to above $71,000. While this may seem positive on paper, analysts note that, unless the general downward trend is broken, such rallies are viewed as temporary recoveries. Following a test of the trendline overnight, the price again retreated from resistance.
Resistance line and two main scenarios ahead
Bitcoin’s retreat from the descending trendline near $71,000 now brings two primary short-term scenarios to the forefront. The first possibility is that, given the renewed resistance, selling pressure could increase and push Bitcoin down toward $65,000 in a deeper correction.
Alternatively, Bitcoin might recover and break decisively above this trendline. Should this occur, it would signal an important shift in the technical outlook and pave the way for further gains. In that scenario, both technical and fundamental indicators would begin to reinforce a more positive market sentiment.
Thus far, Bitcoin has not been able to close a daily candle above this descending trendline. When price briefly moves above but fails to sustain it, the market does not interpret it as a true breakout. For a meaningful rally to begin, a surge supported by strong trading volume and a sustained close above the trendline is required.
While some fundamental data—such as recent ETF inflows—are seen as short-term positives, currently, technical indicators have taken center stage in determining the direction of the market.
Analysts emphasize that while fundamentals contribute to the overall narrative, the most decisive factor remains the key levels on the price chart. They underscore that Bitcoin must clearly surpass the descending trendline to regain upward momentum.
At the moment, the market appears to be in a transitional phase, caught between technical signals and an optimistic fundamental outlook.
