As the US market was moments away from opening, Bitcoin 
$77,560 was on the verge of dropping below $91,000. The post-market will reveal Nvidia’s earnings report, and at 10:00 PM, the Fed minutes will be announced, signaling crucial hours ahead. What insights are the options markets offering about cryptocurrencies? Has risk appetite also diminished in this area?
Current State of Bitcoin Options
The options market reflects the perspectives of professional and institutional investors on cryptocurrencies. Therefore, shifts in contract interest are significant. During bull markets, higher levels see intense interest in call options. Conversely, in expectation of declines, put options become dominant, indicating anticipation for deeper lows.
The current situation is quite clear. According to options markets, there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin will end the year below $90,000. The probability of closing above $100,000 has fallen to 30%. The scenario is similar for Ether, with a prevailing likelihood of closing below $2,900. Meanwhile, US markets opened with a slight decline, and Bitcoin remained steady as the text was being prepared.
Reflecting on options, last year saw a prominent presence of call positions at higher levels due to the absence of a real peak. There were aggressive call options for $100,000, $120,000, and $140,000. The $140,000 call options were the most popular contract on Deribit for an entire year.
Today, the situation is reversed. The open position of the $140,000 call option has fallen below $1.63, while the $85,000 put option leads with $2.05 billion. Put options for $80,000 and $90,000 also surpassed significant call options.
Jean-David Pequignot from Deribit, the strongest option market in crypto, notes that December 26th Friday’s contracts are heavily concentrated around the $80,000 strike. This suggests a dominant expectation that the year will end tumultuously.
Has the Crypto Bull Run Ended?
No. Upon examining comments from various research companies and financial experts, they don’t anticipate a bear market akin to previous ones. Short-term declines might happen, but they don’t believe deep bear markets are possible due to changing market conditions.
Yes, the consensus in options has reversed, and put options are drawing attention at lower levels. However, instead of sharp decline or rise predictions, it reflects an expectation of continued market stress. Numerous parameters, beyond options, consistently influence charts and deserve attention.
To conclude on a positive note, yesterday’s market note by 21Shares indicated that the sell pressure by long-term investors has decreased and whale accumulation has visibly improved. Additionally, wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have risen by 2.2%, marking the fastest growth in the last four months.
