A bullish divergence on the one-hour Bitcoin (BTC) price chart has drawn renewed focus among traders, as the world’s largest digital asset hovers near the $63,000–$64,000 support region. Analysts remain cautious, citing ongoing technical resistance and thinning spot market liquidity that could amplify Bitcoin’s next move.
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AAPLBullish RSI divergence emerges at key support
A prominent crypto researcher, known as NickAlphas, identified a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s one-hour chart. This pattern formed as BTC posted lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) created higher lows, a signal frequently associated with weakening downside momentum.
NickAlphas pointed out this setup on August 13, suggesting that recent selling pressure may be losing traction. However, technical analysts continue to stress that a bullish divergence alone does not guarantee a trend reversal without confirmation from higher price action.
The latest one-hour chart shows lower lows for price and higher lows for RSI, typically an early sign that sellers are losing control even as no decisive uptrend has emerged.
Further technicals show BTC testing a Point of Control (POC), a volume-based indicator marking a key support and resistance area. A move above the POC could improve short-term prospects for buyers.
Nevertheless, the divergence remains an initial signal. If resistance zones are not reclaimed, the market’s broader corrective structure would continue.
Mini dictionary: Point of Control (POC), in crypto trading and market profile analysis, represents the price level with the highest traded volume within a given period, often signaling significant support or resistance.
$64,000 remains the crucial near-term hurdle
Technical analysis from TheOnePct on TradingView spots the $64,000 region as a key battleground for both bulls and bears. This area aligns with the Anchored VWAP and the main Volume POC, positioning it as a potential reaction zone.
TheOnePct commented that “a temporary bullish move toward the 64K region” could develop, while emphasizing the fragile nature of the current trend. Technical resistance clusters, especially between $63,500 and $64,500, have repeatedly limited upside attempts throughout recent consolidation.
A rebound to $64,000 could occur, but reclaiming this level is critical if short-term buyers are to challenge the overall bearish tone.
Beyond $64,000, the $65,500 area stands out as the next key threshold. Analysts claim a close above this level would provide stronger evidence of a potential shift in market structure, with earlier market order blocks also noted in the $65,000–$65,200 range.
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $62,800–$63,000 | Immediate support |
| $64,000 | Short-term resistance, POC and VWAP |
| $65,500 | Key structure-shift level |
| $66,394 / $71,661 | Long-term EMA resistance |
Technical indicators show prevailing caution
TradingView data as of the technical snapshot places Bitcoin near $62,990, with the overall indicator summary showing 14 sell signals, 10 neutral, and only two buy signals. Moving averages dominate the negative bias in the metrics, supporting a conservative outlook among quant-driven traders.
The RSI stands at 43, below the neutral level of 50 but nowhere near typical oversold conditions. The Average Directional Index, at approximately 14, suggests weak trending momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory, and many other oscillators are neutral, hinting at a lack of clear conviction.
Short- and mid-term moving averages ranging from the EMA 10 at $63,504 to the EMA 50 at $64,301 reinforce $63,500–$64,500 as a resistance cluster. The longer-term averages, such as the 100-period EMA ($66,394) and 200-period EMA ($71,661), are positioned far above current levels, underlining the challenges for a sustained reversal.
Thinning orderbook increases volatility risk
Glassnode, a blockchain data and analytics firm, has flagged a sharp contraction in spot orderbook depth in recent months, reducing the market’s buffer against larger trades.
Their research shows that the thick buy-side liquidity observed beneath Bitcoin’s price in June has receded. Sell-side liquidity near current prices also remains limited, meaning relatively small trades could now have a greater impact on price direction.
With orderbooks thin, the $62,800–$63,000 region becomes a focal point. A strong defense of this zone might prompt a rebound, while a clean break lower would expose BTC to swifter declines. Glassnode’s broader analysis describes BTC’s current phase as one of consolidation, with contracted exchange liquidity and less aggressive selling.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode is a blockchain analytics platform that provides on-chain and market intelligence across the crypto sector, offering insights into metrics such as liquidity, orderbook depth, and investor flows.
Short-term vs medium-term forecasts diverge
Other analysts remain divided over Bitcoin’s trajectory through 2026. Ali Martinez has presented a medium-term bearish scenario, forecasting a possible cycle bottom between October 6 and October 16, 2026. He suggests gradual accumulation from $62,000 down to $48,000 before a potential last capitulation phase.
Despite the current technical rebound potential, Martinez’s scenario highlights why a short-lived bounce should not be mistaken for the start of a fresh bull cycle. Bitcoin’s price, currently near $63,000, remains roughly 50% below its recent all time high near $126,000.
Cycle analysis can offer historical context but is not a precise timing tool. The interplay between price action, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic factors will ultimately determine if BTC can reclaim higher levels or extend its correction in coming months.
