The last hours and minutes of July are here, and the Bitcoin price is lingering around $65,700 as this article is being prepared. Although some experts had surprise rate cut claims for this Fed meeting, the market expectation was for rates to remain unchanged. Powell and his team made the expected decision and left the door open for a cut in September.
Why Are Cryptocurrencies Falling?
Powell said that the 50bp cut scenario for this year is not accepted for now. Although he mentioned at the beginning of his speech that cuts were not discussed for September, he talked about approaching cuts towards the end of his statements. The good news is that no further decline in employment is expected. The unemployment rate data will be released on Friday, and if it is below expectations, markets might more firmly believe in the cut scenario for September.
So why is there a decline? Despite the upcoming meeting in September and inflation falling to 3%, Powell’s lack of a clear cut signal supports the concern that there might be one last postponement in September. Another factor triggering the decline is Iran’s announcement of “retaliation orders” following the attack on the Hamas Political Bureau Chief. The escalation of regional tension and the spread of conflicts to a wider area are being negatively priced by the markets. Indeed, during the previous tension period, we saw that the markets were negatively affected due to Iran’s drones. A similar cycle might occur again.
What Will Happen to Cryptocurrencies?
Jeffrey Gundlach from DoubleLine Capital said, “I expect the Fed to cut rates by 150bp within a year” and mentioned that a recession might be declared in September. The Fed has kept rates at their peak for a year. This situation could lead to unwanted results in the economy, and based on Powell’s speech, we can say that he has a relaxed attitude about this.
As we are about to enter August, the weak Bitcoin price could mean a new wave of sales when Asian markets open in the coming hours. Volatility may increase 1.5 hours after the daily close.
Mt Gox still holds around 80,000 BTC and has returned assets to 17,000 creditors. Assets were also sent to the fifth platform, which has an intermediary agreement for returns. This tells us that the returns might be almost over. Both those who do not meet the necessary conditions and those who died or lost contact while waiting for the return within 10 years already indicated that a 100% return would not be possible. The trustee board will eventually need to convert the remaining assets into cash, which could create a final 80,000 BTC selling pressure on the market. Since the US recently sold some of its assets, no new movement is expected from there for at least a month.
Especially considering Harris’s intention to improve the crypto image, this is what should happen.
