In January, Bitcoin’s value relative to gold dropped to a historic low. This comparison, adjusted for global money supply, highlights one of Bitcoin’s weakest periods compared to gold. Experts suggest that these conditions reflect an investment opportunity even more appealing than those before the bull market from 2015 to 2017. The resurgence of interest in a potential capital shift from gold to Bitcoin is therefore not coincidental.
Controversy Over Bitcoin’s Severe Depreciation Against Gold
According to Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s ratio to gold is approaching a historically “extreme weakness” zone, reminiscent of market bottoms. The last occurrence of such weak levels was in 2015, followed by Bitcoin’s price soaring by approximately 11,800% from $165 to $20,000 over two years. Renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe describes the current situation as an even better buying opportunity than in 2017.
Sharing this perspective are Bitwise Europe’s Research Director André Dragosch and Swyftx’s chief analyst Pav Hundal. Hundal believes the strong rise in gold prices over the past year may prompt investors to realize profits and transition to higher-risk assets. A gradual capital shift from gold to Bitcoin might start in February and March; however, analysts caution that this process will not be abrupt or severe.
Long-term Bitcoin Investors Step Into the Spotlight
Despite Bitcoin experiencing a sharp decline in January, losing about 18% annually, on-chain data presents a calmer picture. Long-term investors, who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, began increasing their positions amidst the selling pressure. The recovery in long-term investor supply and the drop in their selling tendency indicators have signaled bottom formations in past cycles.
A similar pattern was observed after the April 2025 lows, with long-term investors’ accumulation leading to a 60% price recovery in Bitcoin within a month. This points to patient investors viewing price declines as opportunities and indicates the market is establishing a firmer foundation.
However, not everyone shares this optimism. Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s weak performance against stocks might persist, and a major capital outflow from gold and silver should not be expected in the short term. Meanwhile, Citi forecasts a continued rise in silver due to Chinese demand and a weakening dollar, whereas RBC Capital Markets predicts gold prices could reach $7,000 by the end of 2026.
In conclusion, the historical deviation in the Bitcoin-gold ratio may open a long-term opportunity window for the crypto market. Nonetheless, the duration of this window and the speed of capital rotation remain uncertain. Caution is advised in the short term, but on-chain data and past cycles offer promising signals for patient investors.
