Recently, Bitcoin’s price soared to an unprecedented $126,200, marking a milestone as its market capitalization exceeded $2.5 trillion for the first time. However, economist Peter Schiff referred to this rally as a “bear market rally” and expressed doubts about its sustainability. Comparing Bitcoin’s performance against gold, he pointed out that while Bitcoin 
$78,318 reached a new record in dollar terms, its equivalent in gold terms lags. With gold’s price set at an ounce value of $4,000, the comparative record for Bitcoin in gold terms would be around $148,000.
Schiff’s $148,000 Bitcoin Scenario
According to Schiff, although Bitcoin’s dollar-record price is impressive, it falls short when assessed in terms of gold valuation. As the price of an ounce of gold climbs to $4,000, Bitcoin’s “gold equivalent” record also rises. This indicates that the $126,200 milestone does not correspond to a new high when reviewed against historical Bitcoin-gold comparisons. Schiff’s perspective suggests valuing Bitcoin not only against the dollar index but also in comparison to gold, which is regarded as a safe haven during monetary tightening cycles.
A crucial question for market participants is the sustainability and direction of this new record. As gold prices rise, so does the critical threshold in gold terms. Thus, a dollar-based record may not have the same impact on institutional investors diversifying their portfolios. This framework also highlights how cryptocurrency-risk premiums interact with macro expectations.
Market Balance: Return–Risk Profile and Year-End Scenarios
Throughout the year, gold has shown dominance in risk-adjusted metrics, whereas Bitcoin continues to lead in total returns. Strong inflows into cryptocurrency-based investment products, along with the narrative of the Uptober rally and expectations of monetary easing in the US, support the notion that the $150,000 target could be within reach by the year’s end. On the other hand, the 27-trillion-dollar gold market elevates the benchmark with its scale and liquidity advantages, suggesting higher levels for the cryptocurrency sector.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s closely watched threshold lies within the $121,500-$126,000 range, acting as support-resistance conversion. Market observers are monitoring government shutdowns and Fed statements closely as gold’s new equilibrium level serves as an external anchor in cryptocurrency pricing. Institutional demand, ETF flows, and intra-Blockchain profit-taking dynamics will guide Bitcoin’s trajectory and that of the broader market.
