A recent report by the Fars news agency suggests there are currently no ongoing negotiations with Iran. Despite an apparent impasse, statements coming from Iranian officials indicate a softening stance on their side. While some predicted that talks would take place on Thursday, these are now unlikely, yet former US President Donald Trump remains confident that there will be progress by Saturday. Meanwhile, researchers at K33 are sharing their latest insights and outlooks regarding the state of the cryptocurrency market.
K33 Forecasts Signs of Bitcoin Resilience
Analysts at K33 are pointing to diminishing sell pressure as evidence that the cryptocurrency sector may have reached its lowest ebb. Vetle Lunde, K33’s Director of Research, highlighted that Bitcoin has been trading within a stable range between $60,000 and $75,000 for several weeks, signaling a period of consolidation. Steady inflows into exchange-traded fund (ETF) channels add further support to the idea that the market may have already bottomed out.
ETF Inflows Hint at Renewed Confidence
According to Lunde, Bitcoin ETF flows have held slightly positive since late February, marking a significant turnaround from the heavy selling that dominated since last October. Signs of stabilization within the ETF sector bode well for the broader crypto market. Notably, as impulsive selling has slowed over time, liquidity on the sell side has also weakened, suggesting that investors with a medium- and long-term outlook are increasingly taking up buyer positions.
Another encouraging development is the resurgence of long-held supply. After a sharp downturn late last year, the amount of Bitcoin held for more than six months is climbing once again, providing a possible explanation for why Bitcoin has not slipped below the $60,000 mark.
Positive momentum has also been reflected in the ETF space. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported that Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) has received an official listing notice from the New York Stock Exchange—a strong indication that the product could soon launch. Balchunas added that the ETF’s management fee is expected to be closely watched, with speculation that it will be set at around 0.24%, slightly below that charged by the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
Geopolitical Risks Keep Crypto Markets on Edge
Despite these positive signals, uncertainty surrounding Iran and rising oil prices continue to inject volatility into global financial markets—posing headwinds for cryptocurrencies. Should the much-discussed 15-point Iran deal remain unsigned in the coming weeks, deeper problems in regional energy supply could emerge. Iranian officials maintain that any escalation would compel them to retaliate against oil production facilities in the region.
Tensions have already impacted supply. Recent attacks on refineries have caused protracted declines in production, although a rebound remains possible. However, should the conflict intensify, the resulting upward pressure on energy and food inflation could force the US Federal Reserve into rate hikes as soon as 2026.
