Bitcoin has entered the second half of its halving cycle following the April 2024 event, with the next supply cut projected for April 2028 at block height 1,050,000. Over 105,000 blocks remain in the current cycle, putting the network just past the midpoint of what analysts refer to as epoch five.
Halving impact shapes supply and market dynamics
Halvings on the Bitcoin network take place every 210,000 blocks, each time reducing miner rewards by half and directly impacting the network’s rate of new coin creation. Currently, block rewards stand at 3.125 BTC but will drop to around 1.562 BTC with the 2028 halving, which will cut daily issuance from 450 BTC to 225 BTC.
This protocol-driven reduction in supply is integral to Bitcoin’s capped limit of 21 million coins and has supported its scarcity narrative since inception. Past cycles after 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halvings saw notable price expansions, as a declining flow of new coins met consistent demand, encouraging upward pressure on prices.
However, the current cycle displays more restrained growth. Since April 2024, Bitcoin’s value has risen about 15%, climbing from nearly $64,000 to approximately $74,000. The asset reached its highest point near $126,000 in October 2025 before falling back to around $60,000 by February, indicating less pronounced gains compared to earlier cycles.
One key factor in this measured trajectory lies in Bitcoin’s increased market capitalization. As the network matures and adoption widens, larger sums are required to move the market, resulting in lower volatility and a slower pace of price increases.
Miners face new realities as AI pivot accelerates
The current environment brings fresh challenges for miners, who are seeing core mining margins squeezed by reduced rewards, while energy and operational costs remain elevated. Operators have looked for alternative revenue mixes to maintain profitability as rewards from newly generated coins taper off.
Many mining companies are redirecting their focus toward artificial intelligence. By shifting resources into power-intensive data center operations, miners are leveraging their existing infrastructure—such as energy supply, cooling systems, and property—to support AI workloads and secure steadier revenue streams.
Firms including TeraWulf and Core Scientific have taken notable steps in this transition, finalizing multi-billion-dollar deals to host AI compute infrastructure. Resources previously reserved for acquiring and holding Bitcoin are being repurposed into expanding data center capacity for high-demand AI applications.
This shift highlights a broadening of the business model for traditional bitcoin miners, as rapidly evolving market conditions and halved block rewards prompt more diversified strategies. Integrating AI infrastructure serves to offset lost mining income and positions miners to benefit from booming demand in a parallel tech sector.
Price action in the latest cycle has also been influenced by trading activity in bitcoin derivatives. In recent months, bitcoin climbed from $70,700 to above $76,000 in just two days, accelerated by $225 million in liquidated short positions, pointing to how leverage can intensify market swings even when longer-term volatility trends downward.
Institutional flows continue to reshape market structure, especially as spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attract sustained interest and participation from large investors. This trend has further contributed to a landscape defined by greater capital requirements and more gradual price shifts compared to bitcoin’s earlier years.
