Veteran technical analyst Dave the Wave published a Bitcoin chart showing the cryptocurrency climbing into a descending resistance line that has constrained price action since the October 2025 peak near $126,000. As of the chart’s capture, Bitcoin was trading around $68,216 after reaching an intraday high of $69,739. The move continued, bringing the price up to approximately $69,600.
Major trendline test for Bitcoin
The primary feature of Dave the Wave’s chart is the dotted diagonal resistance line extending downward from Bitcoin’s October high through each subsequent lower peak. This trendline has shaped the ongoing correction for nearly a year, with every rally meeting resistance and fueling expectations of continued weakness. Wednesday’s advance confronted this pattern directly.
The day opened with Bitcoin at $64,706, before a surge to almost $69,739 and a pullback to $68,216 as the image was captured. This move positioned Bitcoin at its most important technical decision point in recent months, briefly lifting it above the descending trendline. A rising green support line under the market signals a broader recovery structure, while the chart’s upper region indicates potential resistance between $80,000 and $83,000, rising toward the high-$80,000s over time.
Analysts caution that while these upper targets can be inferred from the chart, no breakout is guaranteed. The setup currently shows Bitcoin attempting to escape the compression zone that defined much of its recent bear market.
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AAPLBrave New Coin has previously identified the $66,400 area as the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s prolonged trading range. As Bitcoin cleared this level intraday, attention shifted from anticipation of a breakout to the question of whether the market can maintain it.
The crucial distinction is that only a sustained daily close above the descending trendline, followed by continued strength, would confirm a true reversal instead of a brief failed breakout.
Market echoes from April 2019
Comparisons have emerged with April 2019, when Bitcoin ended a long period of weakness that followed its 2017 peak. After a significant decline to the low-$3,000s and months of low activity, Bitcoin soared 20% on April 2, 2019, breaking above $5,000. Reuters reported at the time that this was likely triggered by a coordinated buy order worth roughly $100 million across major exchanges.
Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, the chief executive of cryptocurrency firm BCB Group, described the event as an algorithmically-managed single order of about 20,000 BTC. The purchase hit a market with low volatility and complacency, setting off a chain of short covering and forced liquidations. The key shift was not the initial spike itself, but the sudden change in sentiment, as more traders scrambled to reassess their bearish stances.
Bitcoin ultimately climbed above $13,000 by June 2019. Current analysts emphasize that while conditions have changed, the market’s emotional setup is similar: subdued activity, fading expectations, and a breakout that forces participants to question the prevailing bear market narrative.
Short squeeze and market dynamics
Recent weeks have seen Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility hovering near historical lows around 36%, reinforcing expectations for limited price swings. Bitcoin rotated between $62,000 and $66,000 before repeatedly stalling at resistance, leading many traders to believe that a low-volatility environment would persist. This fostered a buildup of short positions against resistance levels.
A sudden confluence of factors then changed the landscape. The US Treasury Department confirmed a plan to raise long-dated bond buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, lowering Treasury yields and supporting risk assets. Bitcoin broke above established resistance, sparking almost $1.4 billion in short position liquidations within four hours as forced buying fueled a rapid rally to $70,000.
Unlike the coordinated buying of 2019, Wednesday’s breakout appears to have been driven by a combination of bond-market intervention, concurrent improvements in regulatory outlook, and aggressive short covering.
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Key levels and longer-term view
The next focus is whether Bitcoin can sustain the breakout zone between $66,400 and $66,600. Staying above this area would cement the breakout as a major shift, with former resistance turning into support. A reversal below could suggest Wednesday’s rally was little more than a short squeeze.
Dave the Wave’s chart outlines a wider technical structure: a confirmed breakout could open the way toward the $80,000–$83,000 zone, though these should be seen as resistance boundaries, not guaranteed targets.
Broader historical analysis adds context. According to Brave New Coin, Dave’s Logarithmic Growth Curve places Bitcoin near a historically significant accumulation area, and another indicator—the 200-week moving average—has reliably appeared around major cycle bottoms in previous cycles.
Despite these signs, Bitcoin remains around 45% below its record high, and Federal Reserve officials have continued to warn that further monetary tightening may be needed if inflation stays high.
Analysts emphasize that major trend reversals rarely take place when sentiment is universally optimistic. Instead, they often begin when the prevailing mood is one of resignation, and a single significant move forces market participants to reevaluate what is possible. Dave the Wave’s latest chart suggests Bitcoin may have entered such a phase.
