Bitcoin (BTC) recently surpassed $72,000 in the US due to the increasing likelihood of a spot Ethereum ETF approval, but this rise faced selling pressure and the price fell back below $70,000. Historical models indicate that BTC has not yet entered an uptrend and the consolidation cycle continues.
$71,500 Must Be Surpassed
Leading cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital stated that a weekly candle close above $71,500 could trigger a breakout from Bitcoin’s Consolidation Range. However, historical models show that Bitcoin could consolidate in this range for a few more weeks, consistent with past block reward halving cycles.
Extended consolidation could help Bitcoin synchronize with historical block reward halving cycles and potentially prolong the bull run. Rekt Capital noted that the current cycle momentum is around 190 days, an improvement from the 260-day momentum seen in mid-March. While investors are eager for a breakout, prolonged consolidation supports historical synchronization, potentially leading to a longer bull market.
Another experienced cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the TD Sequential indicator, which currently offers a buy signal for Bitcoin on the hourly chart. This suggests that Bitcoin is ready for a recovery.
Additionally, on-chain data analyst Ki Young Ju observed that Bitcoin investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to sell. Ju noted that Bitcoin is starting to be perceived as a store of value rather than just a trading asset.
Critical Levels for Bitcoin
In the short term, the critical support level for BTC is around $67,500. Maintaining this level and staying above it could lead to a rally towards $74,500. However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain this support, it could fall to $64,000. Nevertheless, positive market sentiment is supported by strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
According to recent data, total net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $306 million on May 21, marking seven consecutive days of positive inflows. Grayscale’s ETF GBTC saw no net outflows, while BlackRock’s ETF IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $290 million. Moreover, the total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs rose to $58.91 billion.
