Bitcoin recorded modest gains on Thursday, moving in line with the broader cryptocurrency market while US equities hovered close to record highs. Investors kept a close watch on macroeconomic trends ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, as sentiment remained cautious across both risk assets and digital currencies.
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AAPLBitcoin’s price action and correlation with equities
The world’s largest cryptocurrency advanced 0.22% in the past 24 hours, trading around $64,684. The CoinMarketCap 20 Index, tracking the performance of top cryptocurrencies, increased by 0.33%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index held steady after notching fresh record highs earlier in the week. At the same time, markets continued to monitor developments on geopolitics, including the possibility of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the minor uptick in Bitcoin’s daily price, its medium-term performance has lagged far behind US equities.
Thahbib Rahman, a research analyst at Block Scholes, noted that Bitcoin has not matched the surge in equities over recent months.
Bitcoin (BTC) has not enjoyed the same bullish record headlines, being stuck at around $63,500. It remains well below its own all-time highs, and the gap with equities has become more stark. Since the start of 2025 the S&P 500 has returned over 25%, while BTC is down nearly 35%, with the divergence widening through the latest equity rally.
Rahman emphasized, however, that the divergence does not indicate a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional risk assets. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has stayed elevated at about 45%. In his view, Bitcoin simply captured less upside during recent rallies but fell more decisively during downturns.
| Asset | YTD Return (2025) | Correlation (90-day) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -35% | 45% |
| S&P 500 | +25% | 45% |
Futures outlook and derivatives activity
Derivatives data indicated a shift in sentiment, suggesting a more constructive outlook for Bitcoin among traders. For the first time in at least a week, the long-short taker volume ratio turned positive, with long positions representing nearly 61% of market orders.
Bitcoin futures open interest edged up to approximately 759,000 BTC. Still, analysts observed that increases of this kind, seen since June, have generally been short-lived, with open interest frequently falling back toward 740,000 BTC.
In the options market, traders purchased substantial bullish call options at higher strike prices. The $80,000 and $96,000 Bitcoin call options ranked among the most actively traded contracts on Deribit, hinting at optimism for a potential rally.
Mini dictionary: Block Scholes is a research and analytics firm focused on digital asset markets, providing data-driven insights for institutional investors and traders.
Mixed performance across altcoins
Altcoins showed varied results through the last day. XRP slipped 1.8% to about $1.04, marking its lowest price since early July. Open interest in XRP futures climbed 1.7% to 2.35 billion tokens, signaling robust activity even as the token weakened.
Ethereum gained 1.5%, accompanied by a 0.53% increase in open interest to $26.77 billion.
Solana saw another drop in leveraged positions, with futures open interest declining again to 61.31 million tokens, compared to highs above 76.5 million recorded in late June.
Impact of monetary policy and outlook
Analysts at Block Scholes identified expectations around US monetary policy as a key factor limiting activity in digital asset markets.
Rahman explained that the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise rates during the latest FOMC meeting failed to spark significant momentum in cryptocurrencies, a reaction he described as “muted relief.”
Seasonality in crypto volatility suggests that we should expect muted activity to continue ahead of the next FOMC meeting in September, given ongoing uncertainty around monetary policy and the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has shown little readiness to provide forward guidance.
Despite the hold in interest rates, financial markets are now pricing in about a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Analysts suggested that typical summer trading patterns may lead to continued subdued volatility leading up to the next central bank decision.
