Bitcoin’s recent growth in user numbers has drawn comparisons to the period when Facebook transitioned from a niche social platform to a mainstream service used by billions. This parallel was highlighted by Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who argued that Bitcoin has now entered a similar adoption phase, catalyzed by the introduction of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin’s “uncool” moment and mainstreaming
Balchunas, who also co-hosts the Trillions podcast, explained that Bitcoin is moving past its countercultural roots as traditional investors and retirees gain exposure to the asset through regulated funds. He referenced the time when Facebook saw a surge in older users, which pushed its monthly active user count from 1 billion in 2012 to over 3 billion by the end of 2023. During that period, growth rates slowed, but Facebook’s overall reach multiplied substantially.
Framing this shift as a sign of maturity, not decline, Balchunas suggested that Bitcoin’s current phase represents the start of broad, mainstream adoption rather than a loss of relevance. He noted that bringing in new waves of users often triggers further expansion for digital assets, even as some early adopters move on.
“Bitcoin right now feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand, it’s not as ‘cool’ anymore, but Facebook’s user base grew massively after that shift,” reflected Balchunas in his comparison.
Facebook, owned by Meta Platforms, is one of the largest social networks globally, renowned for its role in connecting people across countries and demographics since its founding in 2004. The company has influenced how information is distributed online and stood out for sustaining growth even after its “cool” factor faded.
Indicators from ETF inflows and global user estimates
Balchunas also pointed to quantitative signals supporting his analogy. He cited BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which reportedly saw approximately 1 million buyers in its first year following launch. The fund has accumulated 782,180 BTC, accounting for around 3.9% of the current Bitcoin supply.
According to recent estimates, global Bitcoin holders have now reached about 106 million, a significant uptick from the range of 30 to 50 million three years prior. This increase aligns closely with the introduction and growing popularity of spot ETFs, including products from major asset management firms like BlackRock and Fidelity.
Balchunas requested additional data on how Bitcoin’s holder base changed over three, five, and ten-year intervals to track its growth trajectory more accurately. Despite ongoing predictions from skeptics about Bitcoin losing relevance, the number of participants has accelerated, mirroring Facebook’s user expansion during its “mainstreaming” period.
As assets like Bitcoin transition from being driven by identity and ideology to attracting broader, passive investment, analysts believe this phase can mark the start of the largest wave of adoption and market participation.
The trend observed since ETF approvals seems to support the possibility that Bitcoin’s user base could continue expanding in line with mainstream digital platforms from previous decades.
