A new analysis focusing on Bitcoin’s price cycles highlights an intriguing pattern: Bitcoin’s price has consistently hit its lowest point roughly 23 months after reaching a major all-time high. According to this research, with the last peak recorded in October 2025, the market could now be entering the early phase of a new bottoming window. Market watchers are closely tracking this cyclical behavior to gauge what may lie ahead for the digital asset.
How Was the 23-Month Cycle Identified?
Crypto analyst Crypto Tice examined historical Bitcoin price charts and discovered that three out of the past four major cycles saw the market bottom out about 23 months after an all-time high. His analysis reviewed periods following the peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, finding that each was followed by a pronounced downturn lasting nearly two years, culminating in prices settling at new lows.
The study emphasizes that with the latest peak in October 2025, the 23-month countdown has just begun. Historically, this phase aligns with periods in which selling pressure diminishes and buying opportunities start to emerge, as past price actions have shown.
Each of those completed Bitcoin cycles saw low points materializing within nearly identical windows. According to the analysis, repeated patterns—depicted as green bands on the charts—reflect this cyclical nature in price behavior.
The Analyst’s Perspective and Model Limitations
Crypto Tice, who published his findings on March 8, 2026, argues that the repetitive timing is no coincidence. He believes the 23-month downturn is evidence of a structural pattern in Bitcoin’s market, with sellers losing steam and risk-reward shifting in favor of buyers as each cycle progresses.
While Crypto Tice acknowledges that past data does not guarantee future results, he maintains that these recurring cycles shape market probabilities. He also suggests the coming period looks like one of the most favorable windows in the past two years.
Nevertheless, the analyst is quick to point out the boundaries of his model. He cautions that historical patterns do not operate with clockwork precision and that there’s no certainty a new market low will occur simply because the pattern suggests it. He underscores that this phase predominantly marks a window when downward pressure has historically lessened.
Macro Factors and Unique Market Conditions
While the study examines three previous cycles, today’s landscape looks distinctly different. Global macroeconomic issues such as persistent stagflation fears, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the potential for forced asset liquidations by institutional crypto holders introduce new uncertainties. These factors may alter how and when a market bottom is reached this time around.
Such pronounced external influences were less apparent in earlier cycles. For this reason, it remains unclear if the 23-month pattern will play out as it has in the past.
In his final remarks, Crypto Tice reiterates that while the current period fits the historical timing for a new bottom, any predictions should be made with caution, given the many variables at play.
