Bitcoin rose 2.58% on Sunday, breaking above resistance levels and returning to its daily TBO cloud, which some traders initially considered a sign of renewed strength. However, close market observers pointed to thin weekend trading and underlying technical weakness, questioning the legitimacy of the move.
Concerns over low-liquidity and manipulated moves
A prominent crypto analyst known as MooninPapa, who regularly shares technical perspectives with a broad following on X, highlighted the danger of placing too much confidence in price movements that occur on weekends.
MooninPapa, who is recognized for advanced technical analysis and real-time market commentary, argued that Sunday’s spike in Bitcoin resembled a low-liquidity move often seen when order books thin out and orchestrated efforts can easily shift prices. These periods typically lack sufficient volume to provide structural backing for gains.
He described Sunday’s climb as a textbook weekend event, warning traders not to rely on such price action without corresponding on-chain and exchange volume.
“Never, ever trust a Sunday pump,” MooninPapa cautioned, highlighting the absence of strong support behind the latest rally and calling it pure manipulation.
Analysis of on-balance volume (OBV) added to his skepticism, as volume was trending downward despite the price move. The relative strength index (RSI) did tick higher, breaking a previous pattern, but was not seen as enough to reverse the broader downtrend.
Cycle performance flags broader weakness
Another analyst, Morecryptoonl, contributed a wider historical perspective by examining Bitcoin’s position within its current halving cycle compared to past market cycles. Morecryptoonl, who focuses on multi-cycle analysis and long-term trend identification, shared that the present cycle stands out as the weakest on record so far.
Historically, previous halving cycles saw far sharper gains relative to the price at the start of each cycle. For example, the 2013 cycle approached a 100-fold increase, 2017 peaked between 25 and 30 times, and 2021 topped at eightfold. The cycle underway now has barely moved above its starting level, hovering close to a one-to-one ratio more than 700 days in.
Morecryptoonl suggested that earlier institutional adoption may have accelerated demand and softened the usual post-halving surges, potentially setting the stage for a bottom in the fourth quarter if historic trends repeat.
“Performance has been getting weaker each time, and so far price is still broadly following those past cycle patterns,” Morecryptoonl wrote, emphasizing that the established framework may still apply but is showing signs of cycle deterioration.
Alongside these technical concerns, both MooninPapa and other analysts noted that weekly trading volume in Bitcoin has been shrinking since March, mirroring patterns that have preceded earlier selloffs. On-chain alerts, such as TBT stop-loss signals tracked by MooninPapa, have also continued firing, indicating heightened risk of abrupt shifts and irregular price action.
