Following the release of the September PCE report after the U.S. market opened, BTC moved away from its baseline but still hasn’t reached the desired levels. Despite limited inflationary rise continuing, PCE has hovered nearly stable over the past two years, suggesting that market worries about inflation over the past two years might have been unfounded. This raises questions on the status of 1 and 5-year forecasts.
U.S. Inflation Expectations
The Michigan investor sentiment report contains inflated figures contrary to observed inflation. However, it mirrors consumers’ perceptions of experienced inflation and future expectations; hence, it demands attention. Although the Fed is pleased with inflation forecasts being below expectations and figures announced in the previous month, their policies are not based on this data.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment measure came in at 53.5 against an expectation of 52. Being a preliminary figure, the finalized report might deviate, but reporting above the previous 51 is positive.
The 5-year inflation expectation remained at 3.4%, as announced the previous month. However, today’s preliminary data indicates it has decreased to 3.2%. The 1-year expectation, previously at 4.5%, came in at 4.1%. These preliminary figures below last month’s levels suggest a slowdown in price increases. Consumers appear to be feeling this slowdown, thus adjusting their 1 and 5-year forecasts downward.
Summary and Evaluation of the Report
Joanne Hsu, Director of Consumer Surveys, pointed out that the rise in consumer confidence lies within the margin of error. However, there’s a noticeable recovery in sentiment among younger consumers.
“Overall, while views on current conditions changed little, expectations improved. This improvement was led by a 13% rise in personal finance expectations and was seen across all demographics. Yet, expected personal finance figures in December are about 12% lower than the year’s start. Similarly, labor market expectations slightly improved but remained relatively low.”
Concerns about employment remain constant, offering support for the Fed to continue rate cuts. Joanne Hsu also highlighted the change in inflation expectations.
“Looking ahead, one-year inflation expectations declined from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month, reaching the lowest level since January 2025. This marks four consecutive months of decline, yet short-term inflation expectations still exceed January’s 3.3%. Long-term inflation expectations fell from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching January 2025 levels. In contrast, 2024 figures ranged from 2.8% to 3.2%, while 2019 and 2020 figures were below 2.8%. In both time horizons, inflation uncertainty — measured using interquartile response ranges — remains higher than it was in January of this year.”
