Throughout the year, careful attention has been paid to critical US economic data impacting the cryptocurrency market. The final data set for 2025 has now been released, revealing recent statistics such as the ADP private sector employment report, which shows an increase of 11,500 over a four-week period. Simultaneously, declarations from China’s Ministry of Commerce suggest potential countermeasures against the US, indicating a possible escalation in tensions.
Significant US Economic Data Released
Today marked the release of the final crucial data set for the US, with GDP figures substantially exceeding expectations. These robust figures suggest that the Federal Reserve should not rush into easing measures and that unemployment might recover.
- US GDP Quarterly Advance Data: 4.3% (Expected: 3.3%, Previous: 3.8%)
- US GDP Price Index: 3.8% (Expected: 2.7%, Previous: 2.1%)
- US Durable Goods Orders: -2.2% (Expected: -1.5%, Previous: 0.5%)
- US Core Durable Goods: 0.2% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.6%)
Chinese Concerns Heighten
China’s recent threatening statements have been particularly unsettling. The Ministry of Commerce declared, “If the US persists, we will take the necessary measures to protect Chinese companies. We urge the US to lift its ban on new foreign UAVs.”
Recent US economic figures, while indicating resilience and vitality, remain unstable due to shutdowns. Though last week’s inflation data also lacked reliability, it doesn’t diminish its significance. Alongside the growth, there’s an evident rise in prices, with the GDP Price Index exceeding expectations by 1.1 points, highlighting persistent inflation. Both elements support the view that the Federal Reserve may proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts next year.
Growth appears to be driven mainly by services and consumption rather than production. The concerning figures indicating a contraction on the industrial side are negative.
Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remain tentative. More concerning is the lack of projected reductions in 2027, which could negatively impact cryptocurrencies.
