Citigroup has revised its outlook for the top two cryptocurrencies, cutting 12-month price targets for both bitcoin and ether. The move reflects concerns about delays in U.S. crypto legislation plus weaker growth indicators within each blockchain network. Citigroup, a major multinational bank offering a range of financial services to both retail and institutional clients, regularly publishes research on digital assets and their adoption in traditional finance.
Bitcoin Price Target Cut, ETF Flows Downgraded
The new report sets a $112,000 target for bitcoin over the next year, down from the previous $143,000. Bitcoin was trading close to $74,000 at the time of the update, indicating that Citigroup continues to see upside but at a more moderate scale than before. The bank pointed to a slowdown in legislative momentum in the United States as a primary factor in the adjustment. In particular, odds of comprehensive crypto legislation passing now stand near 60% in market-implied calculations.
Demand from exchange-traded funds continues to play a central role in Citigroup’s view. The bank lowered its projection for new ETF inflows to $10 billion, yet continues to describe these products as a key factor for any meaningful bitcoin rally. Analyst Alex Saunders wrote,
ETF demand, even with the assumption lowered to $10 billion, remains the most important positive factor for the price outlook.
Saunders highlighted that bitcoin has struggled to recover since reaching all-time highs in October, citing pressures from unwinding leveraged positions and the fading impact of April’s halving event. He noted that price action has lingered below notable technical barriers in recent weeks, and $70,000 has become a critical threshold in pre-election trading narratives.
Citigroup’s research outlines a scenario where stronger adoption via ETFs could propel bitcoin as high as $165,000 within twelve months. In a bearish environment tied to potential economic contraction, the bank sees downside as far as $58,000.
Ether Forecast Reduced Amid Slow Legislative Progress
Ether’s 12-month target dropped to $3,175 from $4,304, with trading levels hovering near $2,330 when the report was released. From Citigroup’s perspective, weaker network activity and softer demand led to a reduction in predicted ETF inflows for ether, now estimated at $2.5 billion.
Saunders viewed ether as especially responsive to activity and regulatory clarity, with recent onchain metrics remaining on the lower side. He emphasized that regulatory developments are critical for recovering institutional interest in the asset. The passage of significant digital asset legislation before the end of the year is appearing less likely, which the report argues could limit near-term upside for ether.
The study referenced the CLARITY Act, which has moved through the House but continues to face delays in the Senate. The legislative effort aims to provide clearer definitions and regulatory boundaries for tokens, specifying oversight roles for both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
