Citigroup has revised its 12-month price targets for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, lowering its Bitcoin projection from $143,000 to $112,000 and its Ethereum forecast from $4,304 to $3,175. The banking giant attributed this cautious adjustment to persistent regulatory delays, particularly in the United States, that have clouded the market’s outlook and slowed the anticipated influx of institutional capital.
Regulatory Gridlock and Uncertain Institutional Demand in the US
Citigroup strategist Alex Saunders noted that, despite post-election optimism surrounding regulatory reform in the US, policymakers have yet to act with the urgency markets had expected. This sluggish pace threatens to diminish the window of opportunity for a new wave of institutional demand channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which many believed could fuel further growth. Saunders also warned that the continuing absence of clear regulations—especially regarding stablecoins—keeps institutional investors on the sidelines, as crucial frameworks are still missing.
Earlier this year, Citigroup had painted a much more bullish picture for Bitcoin, floating the possibility of the cryptocurrency soaring as high as $189,000, contingent on rapid regulatory advances. That optimistic “bull case,” however, has given way to a more cautious stance as the hoped-for policy breakthroughs have failed to materialize.
Market Dynamics and the Moves of Major Portfolios
Currently, Bitcoin remains below the $90,000 mark, facing ongoing consolidation. Citigroup points to regulatory inertia as the most significant risk weighing on the digital asset market, even as leading asset managers continue to make sizable bets. Notably, BlackRock recently purchased $600 million worth of Bitcoin, signaling ongoing institutional interest despite the regulatory gridlock.
On-chain analytics from Santiment reveal that large Bitcoin wallets are quietly returning to accumulation, helping to absorb the selling pressure from short-term traders cashing out. Historically, the buildup of substantial long-term holdings has preceded fresh rallies, suggesting that major players remain optimistic. Citigroup, however, contends that any significant price appreciation could be delayed if regulatory improvements do not arrive swiftly.
According to Citigroup’s assessment, “With legislative processes stalled in the US Congress and regulatory measures delayed, fresh ETF-based capital inflows may be pushed back as far as late 2026.”
From a price perspective, Citigroup’s updated bull scenario envisions a rally toward $112,000 if Bitcoin is able to regain the $92,000 level on strong trading volumes. An uptick in ETF investment activity, coupled with a dovish signal from the US Federal Reserve, are identified as key catalysts required to support this optimistic forecast.
On the flip side, if Bitcoin slips below the $84,000 threshold, Citigroup foresees the price potentially falling back to the $72,000–70,000 range, with $78,500 marking the downside target in its base-case bearish scenario. Throughout this period, the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs will remain the most critical metric to watch.
Should ETF inflows remain sluggish, Citigroup doubts that Bitcoin will reach its revised $112,000 price target within the stated timeframe. However, if weekly inflows once again hit the billion-dollar mark, the prior $143,000 target could return to the table.
For now, the cryptocurrency market waits for regulatory clarity to dictate its next major move. In the absence of decisive signals from US lawmakers, Bitcoin’s price trend may remain adrift in the near term.
