Ethereum‘s price has climbed back above $2,500 after a sharp decline earlier this month. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $2,360 on September 16, then rallied to $2,668 before stabilizing near $2,600. Despite this recovery, ETH remains about 47% below its all-time high of roughly $4,946 recorded in October 2025.
Supply squeezes as exchange balances fall
The recent price recovery is closely linked to developments in ETH’s supply dynamics. Since May 2025, Ethereum exchange balances have dropped from 14.8 million ETH to 25.7 million ETH, representing a decline of 28%. This reduction indicates that fewer coins are readily available for immediate sale, which can have a significant effect on price movements, especially if investor demand rises.
A shrinking supply on exchanges means trading activity is more sensitive to shifts in sentiment and incoming demand, amplifying volatility on both the upside and downside.
Staking and ETF inflows strengthen locked supply
Staking activity has accompanied this outflow. Over the past year, the portion of ETH being staked increased steadily, rising from 29.8% in September 2025 to 35.56% as of September 18, 2026. Most staked ETH is effectively removed from active trading since participants lock their coins to support network operations and secure rewards.
Mini dictionary: Staking, the process of locking up cryptocurrency to help validate transactions and secure a blockchain network, often rewards participants with additional coins but removes those tokens from regular circulation during the staking period.
Funding rates are holding near 0.0046, suggesting that leverage in the market has not surged alongside increased staking. This points to a more stable trading environment compared to periods of high leveraged speculation.
Spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have captured about $13.25 billion in net inflows, with total ETH ETF assets now standing at $16.7 billion. This figure amounts to roughly 5.2% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. Among these, BlackRock’s ETHA fund leads the segment with more than $9 billion in assets under management.
| Metric | Current Value | Change/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ETH price | $2,600 | 47% below Oct 2025 peak |
| Exchange balances | 25.7M ETH | Down 28% since May 2025 |
| Staked ETH | 35.56% | Up from 29.8% last year |
| ETH ETF assets | $16.7B | 5.2% of market cap |
ETF inflows have fluctuated throughout September. More than $400 million flowed out midweek but was partially offset by a $143.8 million inflow on September 18.
Mixed outlook amid technical and network upgrades
Forecasts for ETH by year-end remain divided. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has suggested that ETH could reach $6,000 if bitcoin rises to $150,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio climbs to 0.04. By contrast, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and a well-known crypto investor, has signaled his optimism by making ETH his largest holding, saying a $10,000 price could be possible by late 2026.
Other analysts are more cautious. Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, maintains a target of $4,000 for ETH by the end of 2026. Citi analysts have even set a one-year target as low as $2,240.
Currently, ETH trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at $2,272.50 and $2,076.10, respectively. Technical resistance is observed in the $2,655 to $2,672 range; a breakout above could pave the way for a move toward $2,800 or potentially $3,000, while a reversal might bring support back to the $2,400 mark.
Tom Lee projects that if bitcoin reaches $150,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio returns to 0.04, Ethereum could rise to $6,000 by the end of the year. Arthur Hayes, meanwhile, considers Ethereum his primary holding, viewing a $10,000 target as possible by the close of 2026.
Ethereum’s next planned network upgrade, Glamsterdam, is also approaching. The Sepolia testnet is set for October 6, with the mainnet upgrade expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The update aims to boost transaction throughput, enable parallel execution, and expand blob capacity for increased efficiency.
As of September 20, Ethereum remains near $2,600, and the ETH/BTC ratio is approximately 0.032.
