JPMorgan analysts have reported that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to lag behind gold in their recovery, as investor positioning remains more cautious toward the leading cryptocurrency.
Contrasting recovery in gold and Bitcoin ETFs
Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, observed that gold ETFs have staged a stronger comeback compared to their Bitcoin counterparts. Following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, both asset classes saw renewed inflows from investors pursuing protection against currency debasement. However, gold ETF demand has already reversed all of its earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have only managed to recover about half their previous withdrawals.
This imbalance highlights divergent investor sentiment. While the institutional footprint in both gold and Bitcoin remains large, exposure to downside risk is still much more prominent among Bitcoin ETF holders.
JPMorgan’s research identifies a significant gap in investor approach: “Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains close to its 2026 high, whereas short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) stands below historical norms.”
The divergence extends into the options market as well. IBIT currently shows a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, suggesting that Bitcoin investors are prioritizing protective strategies to guard against potential declines.
Potential for Bitcoin to catch up
JPMorgan analysts believe that this unusually high level of defensive positioning among Bitcoin investors could eventually work in the cryptocurrency’s favor. If sentiment improves and the need for hedging declines, outflows from downside protection may provide fresh support for Bitcoin ETFs, potentially narrowing the gap with gold.
Panigirtzoglou’s team began 2026 with an optimistic outlook for the digital asset sector. In February, the analysts stated they remained constructive on the crypto market, estimating Bitcoin’s production cost at around $77,000, a decline from approximately $90,000 at the start of the year.
They also reiterated a long-term, volatility-adjusted valuation for Bitcoin at $266,000, based on comparisons to gold’s market positioning.
Despite the positive outlook earlier in the year, JPMorgan cautioned that “Bitcoin has spent five consecutive months below its estimated production cost in 2026, raising concerns about sustained miner profitability.”
Regulatory uncertainty compounds market positioning
As 2026 progressed, JPMorgan’s tone on crypto became more conservative. The bank consistently highlighted increased concerns over the tightening window for the Clarity Act, warning that unresolved regulatory issues could add additional layers of uncertainty for institutional investors in Bitcoin.
While gold’s momentum in ETFs has been buoyed by strong demand and lower short interest, Bitcoin’s trajectory may rely on shifting market sentiment and regulatory clarity for further gains.
Amid these broader macro trends, the digital asset space is experiencing significant technological changes. While traditional markets have depended on brokers and intermediaries, a transformative shift is pushing Wall Street closer to Web3. Many investors are now turning to solutions like 1stepSwap, which allow them to hold shares of major US companies, as well as gold and silver, directly in their crypto wallets. By tokenizing real-world assets and automatically seeking optimal market prices within seconds, these platforms aim to eliminate middlemen in traditional asset trading.
The intersection of evolving regulations, institutional market positioning, and innovative asset tokenization continues to shape the competitive landscape between Bitcoin and gold ETFs in 2026.
