According to a Reuters report, JPMorgan Chase assesses the probability of a global economic recession at 60%. New trade policies implemented by the United States have created uncertainty in global markets.
New U.S. Trade Policies
The U.S.’s tariff implementations against China and the European Union have led to tensions in global trade. These measures are expected to have adverse effects on international trade relations.
A note published by JPMorgan Chase highlighted that the U.S.’s “destructive” policies represent the biggest risk factor for the global outlook throughout the year.
A JPMorgan Chase official stated, “U.S. policies will heighten their impact with decreased business sentiment and supply chain disruptions.”
It is mentioned that this situation may be partially balanced by the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates in the future. However, Powell’s recent statements still indicate a focus on inflation-driven strategies.
2025 Economic Predictions
Major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs have also pointed out the increasing risk of recession in the U.S. economy. Their forecasts include factors that will closely affect the U.S. economy within the next 12 months.
Goldman Sachs indicated that its previous assessment has risen by 20%, now estimating a 35% chance of recession. Another institution, HSBC, stated that market data supports their assessment, indicating approximately a 40% likelihood of recession by year-end.
An HSBC analyst noted, “The stock market has partially priced in the global recession risk.”
In recent weeks, the U.S. President announced a 10% tariff on imports from certain countries, and reciprocal tariffs will begin to take effect on Monday, which is expected to create a chaotic environment in global trade.
Market observers express that the implemented tariffs and other measures could exert pressure on economic activity in the short term. A recession could lead to declines in cryptocurrency markets, akin to inflationary pressures. If the Fed delays intervention again, we might see new lows in cryptocurrency by July.
The analyses suggest that the new policies and measures could produce complex effects on global trade relations and economic recovery. It is emphasized that definitive conclusions have not yet been reached, and market conditions continue to show significant variability.
